san diego: dialed in: CoViD-19: CDC Cleans Up Guidance | County To Surpass 300,000 Cases, 3,000 Deaths | House Managers Conclude Case

Shaba, a geriatric elephant at San Diego Zoo (Taken 2.11.2021)

I'm going to keep it short tonight because I got a little ranty earlier today that I'm keeping after the jump. I personally had a great day. I slept well! I woke up bright and shiny in the morning and Darren made breakfast while we watched the Impeachment trial. We also watched pieces of Jen Psaki's media briefing. By the afternoon, I'd written my rant (see below), put away laundry, tidied up the house, and while Darren was on a bike ride got to grooming my overgrown and long-ignored eyebrows before we packed up and went to the San Diego Zoo for the closing two hours of the day.

From there, we went to my mom's to pick up Nova, grabbed some lumpia from Jochi, but they were out of pancit, so we called an order into 777 Noodle House and had a smorgasbord of Asian delights. It was actually a perfect day, though I'm gonna have to catch up on news and emails tomorrow because I want to have some speakeasy time tonight. In the meantime, I'm stoked I got my situation handled with EDD, and so feeling aggressive, I did a three way call with my mom and 2-1-1, which after going through their phone tree, got us to this super amazing woman named Jackie who not only added my dad to the homebound seniors wait-list for vaccinations (the pilot hasn't quite rolled out as yet), but she was able to get my mom an appointment for this weekend in Chula Vista. While the news is harping on the difficulty of getting vaccination appointments, I would say be persistent. If it is true that vaccines may roll out to the next tier in 2-3 weeks, get your 65+ parents signed up as soon as possible!!! Otherwise they could get lost in the system once everyone and their brother claims to be a food and ag worker which includes restaurants, delivery, takeout, farming, etc.
Anyway, I'm getting screen blindness which surely means I need to wrap this up. I will say from the impeachment, the best line of the day was a quote:

“Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities.”. - Voltaire

Anyway, be safe out there. Rant and Zoo photos and all my daily notes in between, after the jump.

I hate KGTV Channel 10. I watch news across channels, usually through clips on my YouTube subscriptions, and I understand headlines need to be punchy and click-bait, but they are the worst. Actually there are worse locally (see my notes on today's County briefing, but I don't subscribe to KUSI or the local Fox affiliate at all.) But the point remains, posting a headline like "Concerns raised over vaccine shortage in California" is so disingenuous. This feeds their narrative and constant stories piling on about the push to reopen schools, reopen events, reopen youth sports, and somehow this is all the governor's fault as they push for recall. It's fucking obnoxious.

Vaccines were reserved in 2019, before they were even approved, by the Trump administration with no real federal plan for distribution. When they were distributed, it was uneven, inconsistent, and "blue" states were punished while "red" states were rewarded.
Vaccine orders and production and distribution is still all being sorted out by the new administration three weeks into the term. We have been told that states are now getting their information and allocations 3 weeks out for planning. The administration has moved to distribute to pharmacies, health systems, and community health clinics. Additionally, with this new information on allocations, our governor has moved to further distribute through Kaiser and Blue Cross starting mid-February in addition to FEMA, state, county, and city vaccination sites. Is there concern that there is a vaccine shortage? ABSOLUTELY. It is a problem in our state, across the country, and across the world as rich countries buy up all available approved vaccines while poor countries have yet to receive one shot at all. But KGTV knows exactly what they're doing by creating this false blame, this panic, this narrative. Fuck them all.

And as for the push for reopening: we're almost there! We know that schools are going to reopen as community spread drops. It has to get below 25 cases per 100k and while San Diego was in the 90s just a month ago, we're now at 34.2. Opening will be a rollout from the youngest and most vulnerable and not likely for middle and high school, maybe even for the school year, but it's going to happen. We know that teachers want to be vaccinated and also that Tier 1B, which includes teachers, could be opening up in the next 2-3 weeks, but we also know that Johnson & Johnson could be approved by the end of the month which could truly be a game-changer, along with pending vaccines Novavax and Astrazeneca. Stop getting in a frenzied panic over things that are happening in a matter of days that should have been planned from the federal government over the past year.

COVID-19:

The Pandemic Has Unmasked America’s Deepest Inequities. COVID’s disparate racial impacts, by the numbers. - Mother Jones (2.11.2021)
The Oxford/AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine: what you need to know - WHO (2.11.2021)
How well will vaccines work? Covid-19 may become endemic. Governments need to start thinking about how to cope - The Economist (2.13.2021 edition)
Exhaled aerosol increases with COVID-19 infection, age, and obesity - PNAS
Our findings indicate that the capacity of airway lining mucus to resist breakup on breathing varies significantly between individuals, with a trend to increasing with the advance of COVID-19 infection and body mass index multiplied by age (i.e., BMI-years).
Variants and Vaccines Explainer - Covid Act Now (Updated 2.8.2021)

Politics:

After Democrats’ visceral presentation, Trump team on stage - AP News (2.11.2021)

White House Briefing with Press Secretary Jen Psaki:

Biden had a call with gun violence prevention groups: Brady Campaign, Moms Demand Action, Everytown, Gaby Giffords and more
Critical need for modern and sustainable infrastructure across the country.

Biden visiting NIH. This admin is leading with science, ongoing efforts to expand vaccine supply.
Transatlantic relations will be discussed on 2/19 Munich Security Conference
Actions on Myanmar/Burma:

Longstanding issue of shortages of semiconductors will lead to an investigation into bottlenecks of supply chains for critical goods. Identifying actions we can take immediately in production, as well as with partners to increase production to help American workers.
Media Questions:

China call readout is what it is. Won't go into more specifics on discussions of trade, Hong Kong, Myanmar unless National Security Advisors have more to say on those matters.
CDC Guidelines for schools are expected on Friday. One day a week is not enough, but schools will open with safety and science in mind first and foremost. Will be following science and medical experts and make sure funding is available through the American Rescue Plan to make that happen.

Global COVID-19 Stats (JHU 2/11/2021 10:23pm):

107,787,428 Known Cases
2,368,530 Known Deaths

US COVID-19 Stats

CDC COVID-19 Vaccination Data Tracker
(JHU)

27,390,550 Cases
475,291 Deaths

(COVID Tracking Project):

103,024 New Cases/27,166,267 Known Cases (2.7%+ Change over 7 Days)
3,885 New Deaths/465,580 Known Deaths
74,225 Current COVID-19 Hospitalizations
15,190 Currently COVID-19 patients in ICU
4,970 COVID-19 patients currently on ventilator

California COVID-19 Stats:

State of California Safe Schools For All Hub
Vaccination progress dashboard
Aggregate California ICU Bed Availability: 13.6%
R-effective: 0.75
8,575 New Cases/3,371,556 Total Cases (0.3% increase)
461 New Deaths/45,456 Total Deaths (1.0% increase)
5.4% 14-day test positivity rate
11,045 COVID-19 Hospitalizations (-471 patients, -4.3% from prior day)
2,996 COVID-19 ICU hospitalized in CA (-131 patients, -4.4% from prior day)
1,366 ICU beds available (-28 from prior day)

San Diego County

San Diego County Media Briefing:

Vaccines

Encouraged by speed of delivery and demand for vaccines
County is able to build out infrastructure

Workforce
Site operations and infrastructure
Appointments

Vaccine supply continues to be the holdup factor
2nd Dose Appointments are honored before 1st Dose Appointments
211 is helping seniors get appointments and transportation
HEAL is vaccinating seniors in their own homes (CALL 2-1-1)
All 86 SNF have been given first doses, 72% have received 2nd doses. 1,106 (82%) of Long Term Care have been visited for at least first doses, 217 have received 2nd dose
MTS providing free rides to vaccination appointments.
Seniors are overwhelmingly represented in deaths. There's not enough vaccine to do everyone who is out and about to control the spread and so the vaccine we have is dedicated towards saving lives.
102 deaths in the last two days is not insignificant, 83% were seniors. That's why seniors are the focus and other tiers won't open until every senior has at least been offered the opportunity of a vaccine.
After, we can move to first tier of essential workers: remaining first responders, teachers, food and agriculture workers

Working to have dedicated vaccination sites for teachers when that phase comes...prioritization will be for schools that are open or have an agreement to open pending vaccination
Working with Scripps Health for dedicated vaccination for law enforcement sites, particularly for law enforcement who work in jails and those who work with high risk population
Working to create dedicated vaccination for Grocery workers
County Fire still going to long term care facilities, but will be moving out to assist with farmworkers to make sure those vulnerable communities get vaccinated
County Fire Plays Key Role in COVID Vaccine Rollout

Media Questions:

KUSI DF Tommy Sablan the idiot's new question is why other states have schools, restaurants, sports open. Why is their science different. Fletch's easy answer is "you would have to ask them that."
Vaccines play a role in getting schools open and is encouraged by the direction. County has been in communication with School Board, Teachers' Union, other stakeholders to get plans going.
County is trying to unpack the unknown and not stated race/ethnicity but some people just choose not to answer these kinds of questions on forms
Federal/State money is coming in. County is assured all vaccination money will be reimbursed.
Moving into next tier will be determined by sustained availability for appointments: all first doses will have to come back, but as first doses seem to open up and lose demand, next tier will open. The minute that happens, there will automatically a new shortage. Feels confident it will be in next 2-3 weeks.
Supply has been enough for all 2nd doses to be given on time.
B117 not increasing as much as expected in San Diego...not as bad as Florida which is not as bad as UK but can't be lulled into complacency as these things can grow exponentially
Informal caregivers require a doctor's certification when arriving for an appointment
Padres in-person attendance will depend on where we are on opening day.

State Data:

Southern California ICU Bed Availability: 10.6%
R-effective: 0.81
810 New Cases/248,858 Total Cases
51 Deaths/2,904 Total Deaths
35.4 cases/100k population (Assessed on 2/9. Unadjusted Case Rate)
9.1% Test Positivity (Assessed on 2/9)
12.1% Health Equity Positivity (Assessed on 2/9)
957 COVID-19 hospitalized patients (-44 patients, -4.4% from prior day)
83 COVID-19 ICU hospitalized patients (-1 patients, -1.2% from prior day)
165 ICU beds available (-14 from prior day)

County Data:

San Diego County Update - County News Center
1,113 New Cases/249,974 Total Cases
B117: 163 confirmed 47 probable cases
51 New Daily Deaths/2,955 Total Deaths
703,200 Doses Shipped/550,707 Doses Administered
5% Daily Test Positivity/7.5% (7-day avg after 7-day lag)/6.4% Test Positivity (14-day average)
34.2 cases/100k population (Assessed on 2/9. Adjusted case rate per 100,000 excluding prisons.)
96% Case Investigation
-11% Day Over Day COVID-19 Hospitalizations (906 patients. -48% increase over 30 days)
19% ICU Capacity (301 patients. -27% increase over 30 days)
46 Staffed ICU Beds Available
17 New/76 Community Outbreaks (7-day)