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| Christmas Tree Stand Placement Balancing (Taken 12.6.2020) |
I'm gonna keep it short today. We haven't left the house since Saturday besides a couple walks around the neighborhood, so I don't have much to say anyway. Nova and I have been crafty...last week we made homemade ornaments, today we started making wreaths by upcycling some chain link fence from the yard, and will hopefully finish tomorrow.
Now that we're in the stay-at-home mode, news isn't really changing except for the continually climbing numbers and the exhausting debate of whether or not the order is appropriate or helpful. I just can't with it all. Notes from Dr. Ghaly's media briefing are after the jump, and I'll probably watch more of the Board of Supervisors meeting when I find some time.
We'll keep doing what we're doing and hope that people out in the world do the same, but if not, thankfully we are minimizing our contact with any of those people. I hope you all can do the same.
- Global COVID-19 Stats (JHU 12/8 7:28pm):
- 68,177,887 Known Cases
- 1,556,062 Known Deaths
- US COVID-19 Stats (COVID Tracking Project Reports Prior Day Numbers):
- 213,498 New Cases/14,930,563 Known Cases
- 2,622 New Deaths/277,367 Known Deaths
- 104,600 Current Hospitalizations
- 20,483 Currently in ICU
- 7,245 Currently on ventilator
- California Secretary Dr. Ghaly Media Briefing:
- Regional Stay At Home Order
- Available ICU by Region:
- Bay Area 24.5%
- Greater Sacramento 18.8%
- Northern California 25%
- San Joaquin Valley 5.6%
- Southern California 10.1%
- Every Non-Essential activity carries a serious risk
- Order is based on experiences in March when we flattened the curve
- Order is based on success of more recent actions in other countries
- Belgium imposed nationwide closure. Positivity rate fell from 21% to 8% in just over 3 weeks
- England imposed a four-week national closure, included non-essential businesses and limits on gatherings. Cases dropped 30% overall, with hardest hit areas dropped 50%
- France and Netherlands seeing real drops in positivity rates after closures
- ICU Beds/Equipment are available but specialized staffing is required and that is limited and stretched
- Case numbers indicate a predictable number of hospitalizations and ICUs
- Travel:
- Stay at home statewide
- Strictly restricted in areas under Regional Stay at Home
- Hotels and vacation rentals are only open for essential purposes
- Hotels may still be used for quarantine and isolation
- California COVID-19 Stats:
- 23,272 New Cases/1,389,707 Total Cases (1.7% increase, 23,503 7-day average)
- 112 New Deaths/20,047 Total Deaths (0.6% increase)
- 8.7% 14-day test positivity rate 10.1% 7-Day Positivity/55% increase from 2 weeks prior
- 11,511 Hospitalizations/ 70.7% 14-day increase
- 2,526 ICU hospitalized in CA/ 68.7% 14-day increase
- 1,679 ICU beds available
- Media Questions:
- Central Valley is experiencing issues with staffing. Hospitals and systems have a formal system for requesting staffing across the regions. Staffing is our scarcest resource. State is trying to get help from health corps and other resources to fulfill requests. In order to get through this, we need the actions of the communities and citizens to comply to keep transmission down.
- Ventura, Santa Barbara other counties don't want to be in Southern California region. Health officers have used these regions for all health responses historically, these regions are essential in sharing resources. State has no intention to change these regions.
- Essential activities/supplies are still needed, but if some retailers are allowed to be open while others not, it created stress on ones with limited opening. By keeping more essential/non-essential retail open, the pressure is distributed. (People gonna Christmas shop regardless of orders, and you can better regulate distancing/masking in retail than dining. My words, not Dr. Ghaly)
- Nurses in ICUs have a significant degree of training. Not something you can learn in days. However, the 2-day training is only meant to give support nurses a crash-course in essential details and thinking so they can help when demand is high. This is not meant to certify anyone in lieu of actual training and certifications.
- Widespread transmission is higher than it has ever been. Restaurants are higher-risk. Factories and plants are higher-risk; being monitored by CDPH, OSHA, etc. Retail is higher-risk.
- Outdoor Dining - We have high community transmission. Every activity that keeps us home and not mixing with others is safer. Goal is to keep people at home, not a comment on the relative safety of those activities.
- Vaccine distribution: State is in conversations with federal Warp Speed team as well as Pfizer and McKesson (distributors of Modena, AstraZeneca, etc)
- Under 5% positivity is the goal, 3%, 1% ideal, but we're over 10% and have a long way to go. Testing is high, even with surging pressures for testing, and will continue to push for more testing
- Consistent/recurrent testing is an effort to try to prevent one or two cases from becoming outbreaks in congregate settings, including prisons/jails
- Acute care, high risk testing/lab results are prioritized over asymptomatic testing. State is still trying to meet demand, but backups are inevitable with the high-demand for testing.
- State can look at cases + 2-3 weeks become hospitalizations (12% statewide) + more weeks may become ICU, thus changes in behavior in movement are necessary.
- LA judge demanding data showing that outdoor dining is more dangerous than other essential/non-essential businesses allowed to stay open. Stay-at-home order is to reduce mixing, especially mask-off mixing. State stands by position that outdoor dining needs to stop to bring down transmission.
- San Diego County Stats
- State Data:
- Southern California ICU Bed Availability: 10.1%
- 1,998 New Cases/94,171 Total Cases
- 0 Deaths/1,062 Total Deaths
- 32.9 cases/100k population (Based on week ending 12/1, Assessed on 12/8. Unadjusted Case Rate)
- 1.5% Test Positivity (Assessed on 12/1.)
- 13.2% Health Equity Positivity (Assessed on 12/8)
- 908 hospitalized patients
- 224 ICU hospitalized patients
- 211 ICU beds available
- County Data:
- San Diego County COVID-19 Update – 12-8-2020 - County News Center
- San Diego Weekly COVID Watch -HHSA
- 1,276 New Cases/95,445 Total Cases
- 26 New Daily Deaths/1,088 Total Deaths
- 6% Daily Test Positivity/9.2% (7-day avg after 7-day lag)/7.2% Test Positivity (14-day average)
- 27.0 cases/100k population (Assessed on 12/8. Unadjusted case rate per 100,000 excluding prisons.)
- Case Investigation is 54% (under 70% goal)
- Increasing Day Over Day Hospitalizations 11.4% (over 10% trigger. 208% increase over 30 days)
- ICU Capacity 20% (20% Trigger. 153% increase over 30 days)
- 9 New/79 Community Outbreaks (7-day)
- Business 28
- Restaurant/bar 1
- Retail 7
- Restaurant 1
- Grocery 1
- Faith-based agency 8
- Government 6
- Daycare/preschool 5
- Healthcare 5
- Emergency Services 3
- Food/Bev Processing 3
- Higher Ed 1
- tk-12 school 2
- Warehouse/Distribution 3
- Gym 1
- Hair Salon/Barber 1
- Hotel/Resort/Spa 2
- Private Residences 1
- Universities:
- COVID-19:
- The New York Times California Today:
Dr. Bibbins-Domingo (the vice dean for population health and health equity at the School of Medicine at U.C. San Francisco) said that the impulse to “play the blame game” and figure out distinct sources of transmission — Outdoor dining? Factories? Thanksgiving dinner tables? — is not productive.
“We don’t have the data to pinpoint with any type of accuracy whether it’s this versus that,” she said. “It also misses the point that once the transmission goes up as high as it is, we basically just have to lock down.” - The Perfect Strategy to Fight Covid-19 Is … Everything? It’d be great to know which public health interventions against the coronavirus have the biggest bang for the buck. But nobody does. - Wired (12.8.2020)
- Stephanie Ruhle My family's Covid diagnosis shows how our broken, confusing system exploits privilege The only way we can get through this is if we have a system that works for everyone. And after having Covid-19, I'm convinced that we do not. - NBC (12.7.2020)
- Nearly 200 workers test positive for COVID-19 at Foster Farms poultry plant in Fresno - CalMatters (12.8.2020)
- From Johns Hopkins University Center for Public Health: From the first case reported in the US on January 22, it took 96 days to reach 1 million cases. From there:
- 1 to 2 million- 44 days
- 2 to 3 million- 27 days
- 3 to 4 million- 15 days
- 4 to 5 million- 17 days
- 5 to 6 million- 22 days
- 6 to 7 million- 25 days
- 7 to 8 million- 21 days
- 8 to 9 million- 14 days
- 9 to 10 million- 10 days
- 10 to 11 million- 7 days
- 11 to 12 million- 5 days
- 12 to 13 million- 7 days
- 13 to 14 million- 5 days (December 3)
- 14 to 15 million- 5 days (15,159,237 December 8 5:27pm)
- Politics/News/Other Reading:
- Live Well San Diego: A Look at the Progress Made Over 10 Years - County News Center (12.8.2020)
- San Diegans Urged to Get a Flu Shot - County News Center (12.8.2020)
- Partnership protects endangered rabbit from fatal virus moving through California - US Fish & Wildlife (12.2.2020)
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