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| California Sea Lion Pup (Taken 9.14.2020) |
I had such a lovely Monday night. After Nova went to bed and while Darren was working on music with his bandmates (via chatroom and texts) in the speakeasy, I watched a cheesy Christmas movie on Netflix (Christmas In California), drank some egg nog, and painted some ornaments Nova and I made a couple weeks ago.
Today I decided I had to go on a 'therapy cruise' which I haven't done in ages, partially because for years I didn't have access to a car and partially because it's ain't really cool to just go burning gas around the city for no particular reason, but these are not normal times and one has to do what one can to maintain sanity. I've been reading Becoming by Michelle Obama and I had put holds on Obama's book, but I didn't expect to get it so quickly with the year plus waiting lists at some libraries, but the County library came through with the audiobook. Darren came with me but maybe he didn't believe me when I said I was literally just going to drive around and listen to the Barack Obama audiobook because he was just wasn't feeling it. I'll go alone next time, but next time probably won't be anytime soon. Still, it was nice seeing some of my favorite places, even if we didn't get out of the car.
By the time I got home, I watched part of the state media briefing before we finished The Wilds on Amazon. We finished watching the briefing after Nova went to bed. It was really intense. I found the page with the California Forecast models and it is terrifying. Earlier in the day, I found out an acquaintance's parents are both in dangerous shape after contracting COVID-19 in their assisted living facility, I'm starting to see more and more people with family members sick or dying. I'm also seeing friends on my socials with family members dying of non-COVID causes, which is also scary because it seems that the level of care could slip as staffing becomes strained and also people are not going to hospitals and doctors when they should because they are scared of being admitted and being alone, or worse, dying alone. Today's media briefing touched on this...reporters really want to catch Governor Newsom or Secretary Ghaly saying things like they were saying in Italy in the spring-- that doctors are going to have to start deciding who is worth saving. They won't say it, but Dr. Ghaly came close, "the point where we have to make some hard decisions on who might receive care," but didn't really finish the sentence other than continuing the non-pharmaceutical interventions we've been doing to prevent getting there. Meanwhile, there's the infuriating story about the White House security official who got really, really sick, is now an amputee, and his friends have organized a Go Fund Me. Like WHAT?? Dude works at the WHITE HOUSE. How is every expense, down to the penny, not covered??? I feel like I'm less afraid now of catching Sars-CoV-2 than I am of the crushing medical bills that could come if I were to be in that unlucky 12% who require hospitalization (or worse.)
So we shall continue the staycation to the extent we can. It pains me because it's pupping season at La Jolla Cove and Casa Beach and I haven't been since we pulled Nova from soccer, but I'll wait until this thing starts to see some control. Hopefully with vaccinations beginning, the new administration coming in January, and that long gap of holidays between New Year's and Memorial Day that we start to see some drastic reductions in cases. Until then, be safe out there.
- Global COVID-19 Stats (JHU 12/18 9:28pm):
- 73,475,980 Known Cases
- 1,635,427 Known Deaths
- US COVID-19 Stats (COVID Tracking Project):
- 189,783 New Cases/16,529,187 Known Cases (9.7%+ Change over 7 Days)
- 2,918 New Deaths/295,322 Known Deaths
- 112,816 Current Hospitalizations
- 21,897 Currently in ICU
- 7,702 Currently on ventilator
- California COVID-19 Media Briefing
- COVID-19 Health Equity Playbook for Communities
- New Quarantine guidelines
- 10 days for all asymptomatic individuals exposed
- During criticals staffing shortages, 7-days for exposed healthcare, emergency response, and select social service workers, if negative test on day 5 or later
- All must continue to wear a mask, maintain physical distance, self-monitor symptoms
- Staffing Remains Biggest Problem
- State issued waiver to adjust nurse to patient ratios from 1:2 to 1:3
- 507 staff enhancements deployed across 54 facilities
- Requested additional help from FEMA, DMAT, DOD Medical Personnel
- Health Corps being used, help is still needed
- Alternative facilities have been deployed with more to come but these are all non-ICU beds
- Deaths
- Activated state's Coroners Mutual Aid & Mass Fatality Program
- Coordinating with County Sherriff Coroners and hospitals
- 41 deaths 11/14 7 day average
- 163 deaths 12/14 7-day average
- 60 53' refrigerated storage units on standby for dead bodies
- Ordered 5,000 additional body bags for San Diego, LA, Inyo
- California Notify is up and running. (My note for people with privacy concerns: If you're on social media, own any device that you can talk to, or own a smartphone, you have no privacy anyway. Sign up.)
- Vaccines have arrived in CA.
- Western States Scientific Safety Review Workgroup reviewed and confirmed Pfizer vaccine safety
- 33,150 doses arrived at 4 locations on Monday
- 24 more locations expecting doses today
- 5 additional sites on Wednesday
- 60% of original allotted (327,000) doses
- 393,900 additional doses next week
- Anticipate Moderna approval with 672,000 doses by end of December
- Vaccinate All 58
- Acknowledge personal community experiences
- Partner with diverse communities, community-based orgs and engage trusted messengers
- Provide fact-based messages to make an informed personal decision
- 27% of state is foreign born. Will connect/promote in 13 languages
- Phase 1A is approx 3 million people (healthcare/frontline)
- Phase 1B is approx 8 million people (teachers/farmworkers/grocery workers, etc.)
- Stats:
- This is our most intense surge to date
- 32,326 New Cases/ 1,617,370 Total Cases (2% increase,32,523 7-day avg)
- 142 New Deaths/21,188 Total Deaths (0.7% increase)
- 10.7% 14-day test positivity rate
- 15,198 Hospitalizations (+620 patients, +4.1%, +68% over 14-days)
- 3,193 ICU hospitalized in CA (+115, +3.6%, +54% over 14-days)
- 1,466 ICU beds available (+42 from prior day)
- 0% ICU Capacity doesn't mean no beds, no staff, it means hospitals are in "surge" mode
- Media Questions:
- No numbers yet on how many vaccines have been administered. When they arrive, they have to take time to store the doses, defrost, get people lined up to get them. Information should be available starting tonight and they hope to publicly share the information when available.
- Messaging and building trust in communities of color is going to be important. Seeking funding to aid in relief, counting on media, and people of influence to spread the fact-based information.
- 45-60 days forecast and modeling is alarmingly more accurate than ever before. Generally state looks at cases from 12 days ago, can predict that 12% of those cases will end up hospitalized and 12% of those will end up in ICUs.
- People over 60 represent 14% of cases but 80% of deaths.
- 40% of people infected may be asymptomatic.
- Governor believes vast majority of people are complying with health orders. As cases rise, as more people are impacted and/or know people impacted or dying then it seems the message penetrates and resonates.
- Ration Care & Crisis Care Guidelines are considered at times, one CA facility has already enacted, state is prepared and having those conversations now.
- Looking at traditional and non-traditional ways of handling hospital surge.
- California has 14,021 ventilators in inventory. 6,511 still available in hospitals.
- Counties have some flexibility in the communities they vaccinate within the State's framework. State sets the tone and tenor and lays out prioritization of vaccines. Some discretion within that frame and within those guidelines. When posed a question if OC could vaccinate Disney workers before teachers, Governor made it clear that teachers are in phase 1B; Disney workers are not. Wednesday Drafting Guidelines Working Group will meet again to roll out vaccines for Phase 1B. State is working with counties to get buy in. Will be tracked from a data standpoint and will be transparency.
- Using USS Mercy has been internally discussed, but not formally requested from federal government. State needs the staff, not the beds. We're good for beds, but staffing is stretched across the whole country.
- "the way we really keep this from swelling to the point where we have to make some hard decisions on who might receive care...is to do the things that we know can reduce transmission. It doesn’t happen overnight just because a community decides to really step up together. It’s still going to be a little time before we see those case numbers come down
- Outdoor and Indoor Youth and Recreational Adult Sports Guidance
- Outdoor training can continue with masks & 6ft distancing
- Different activities have different levels of risk
- Competition with modifications may not resume prior to January 25, 2021 at the earliest
- With cases at an all-time high & ICUs at capacity, we need to stay physically active while reducing transmission
- San Diego County Stats
- State Data:
- Southern California ICU Bed Availability: 1.7%
- 2,206 New Cases/ 109,578 Total Cases
- 0 Deaths/1,162 Total Deaths
- 52.7 cases/100k population (Based on week ending 12/8, Assessed on 12/15. Unadjusted Case Rate)
- 10.9% Test Positivity (Assessed on 12/15)
- 13.5% Health Equity Positivity (Assessed on 12/15)
- 1,082 hospitalized patients (+48 patients, +4.8%)
- 290 ICU hospitalized patients (+14 patients, +5.1%)
- 193 ICU beds available (+14)
- County Data:
- San Diego County COVID-19 Update – 12-15-2020 - County News Center
- San Diego County COVID-19 Watch
- 1,863 New Cases/111,441 Total Cases
- 32 New Daily Deaths/1,194 Total Deaths
- 8% Daily Test Positivity/% (7-day avg after 7-day lag)/8.1% Test Positivity (14-day average)
- 29.5 cases/100k population (Assessed on 12/15. Unadjusted case rate per 100,000 excluding prisons.)
- Case Investigation is % (under 70% goal)
- Increasing Day Over Day Hospitalizations % (over 10% trigger. % increase over 30 days)
- ICU Capacity % (under 20% Trigger. % increase over 30 days)
- 6 New/43 Community Outbreaks (7-day)
- Business 20
- Restaurant/bar 2
- Retail 1
- Restaurant 1
- Grocery 0
- Faith-based Setting 6
- Government 0
- Daycare/preschool 6
- Healthcare 1
- Construction 1
- Emergency Services 0
- Food/Bev Processing 2
- Higher Ed 0
- tk-12 school 2
- Warehouse/Distribution 1
- Universities:
- COVID-19:
- Moderna nears U.S. authorization for COVID-19 shot with FDA staff endorsement - Reuters (12.15.2020)
- COVID-19 Hospitalizations Continue to Break Records, Business Compliance is Essential to Save Lives - 86 New Deaths and 11,194 New Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 in Los Angeles County - County of Los Angeles Public Health (12.15.2020)
- New Covid strain: How worried should we be? - BBC News (12.14.2020)
- Larson, Courtney Introduce the Pandemic Supplies Production Act - US Rep-CT John Larson (12.10.2020)
- White House security official recovering but struggling with severe case of Covid-19 - CNN (12.15.2020)
- Pandemic backlash jeopardizes public health powers, leaders - AP News
- Politics/News/Other Reading:
- Hearing Highlights COVID Impacts on Live Entertainment – Cantwell Continues Push for COVID Relief: “We Need to Act Now” - Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, Subcommittee on Manufacturing, Trade, and Consumer Protection (12.15.20)
- FTC kicks off sweeping privacy probe of nine major social media firms - ARS Technica (12.14.2020)
- How COVID-19 is Changing the Cold and Flu Season. Measures meant to tame the coronavirus pandemic are quashing influenza and most other respiratory diseases, which could have wide-ranging implications. - Nature (12.15.2020)
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