Sunday, January 03, 2021

CoViD-19: Sunday Media Madness | UK SAGE Report: Kids Causing Spread | Leave Bean Dad Alone |

Fi Enjoying The Sunshine (Taken 1.2.2021)

It's another low-key day around the house. I'm especially glad that we all got tested and were negative (Darren's result came back today) because Nova's slight fever is still hanging around though she says she feels totally fine. And to be clear, she's only been about one degree hot, but enough that the little no-touch thermometer gives us a warning beep. According to WebMD, 100.4 or more is considered a fever. Although I still feel like a mean mom because they tried to ask if we can go visit with family since we all tested negative. I know they know that My sister's family's tests were now over two weeks ago, so we don't all have some imaginary free pass now, and until Nova is normal, we're not going anywhere. 

It also appears our new neighbors are in the process of moving in. I can't imagine 3 adults living in that space, but I guess they're going to try to make it work. Darren met one of them briefly yesterday, but we don't know their story or how they're connected, just that so far they've been very quiet. 

Other than that, we're watching football, following the convict-in-chief story about the Georgia election tapes, and the story of "Bean Dad" who is John Roderick, singer of the amazing Seattle band, The Long Winters, and a former Seattle City Council candidate who is getting characterized on Twitter for being an abusive, misogynist, horrible father because he dared make his 9-year-old daughter figure out how to use a can opener. We've been teaching Nova how to feed herself for years, with many stumbles and fails along the way, and now know she can reliably feed herself. But of course the concern trolls have to inject themselves into the story and make it about their own abuse and shitty relationships with food and somehow accuse John of being a terrible person unworthy of meeting his potential future grandchildren. The internet is just full of stupid today. (more after the jump)

Like most people, I have my typical wake up routine. I do a quick FB scroll, a quick Twitter looks at what's trending and latest tweets, and a skim of my email inboxes. And we all know that Zuck and his networks are awful, but it's what we've got. So I got to thinking that what if page and group administrators could mark comments with a 'troll' so that those people can bitch and cry and comment all they want, but they don't get prominently displayed as "Top Fans" in comment threads. Like for news pages...I'm just trying to read links and posts from NBC San Diego, for example. But then I have to see some fucking idiot ranting and railing, generally without having read the link in the first place, and sometimes about things that have nothing to do with the article, and they're marked as a Top Fan. Politicians (on both sides) can't post anything without being told they're the worst person alive. I hate Kevin Faulconer, but I keep it on my own page and don't need to go on his to tell him what a piece of shit I think he is. I'm usually pretty good about skipping the comments, but sometimes you can't not see them and then you just want to tell someone directly that they're a fucking idiot. And I don't. But I certainly want to all the time which is probably why my engagement is so low. 

Meanwhile, it's still grim in COVIDland. Back in mid-November, when I conservatively estimated the US would have 350,000 deaths by inauguration, I couldn't have imagined we would get there so soon. That was before I ever looked at the nowcast and forecast pages for California. Using data from the COVID Tracking Project, the US death toll in December (73,827) was greater than the October and November combined (60,613,) but it seems that the Johns Hopkins dashboard is the more current and accurate one, which today is showing 351,277 (as of 12/3/2021 at 1:23pm.) so I'm going to split the US stats, using JHU for cases and deaths, and the Covid Tracking Project for hospitalizations, ICU, and vents because the latter just isn't accurate and current enough, understanding that numbers are ballparks and delayed in reporting by up to a few days. 

  • COVID-19:
    • Children’s Task and Finish Group: update to 4th Nov 2020 paper on children, schools and transmission - Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies UK (12.31.2020)
      • Explainer thread by UK Dr. Nisreen Alwan
        "...children were more likely to be the index case (i.e. bring the infection home). Compared to those aged 17 and over, the likelihood was 7 times higher for children aged 12-16 years and almost 3 times higher for children under 12...The 'relative transmissibility' means passing the virus on to others. As you can see in the graph, this was also more than twice as likely in children (both under 12 and 12-16) compared to adults."
  • Politics/News:
  • Other Reading:
    • Yesterday I expressed regret at using grocery and food delivery while we were quarantining and waiting for our test results. This is a perfect explainer.
      Instacart Is a Parasite and a Sham. The gig company, like many of its peers, has seen business skyrocket during the pandemic—while exploiting workers and even failing to turn a profit.
  • Global COVID-19 Stats (JHU 5:22pm 1/3/2021):
    • 85,083,468 Known Cases
    • 1,842,455 Known Deaths
  • US COVID-19 Stats (JHU):
    • 20,623,578 Known Cases 
    • 351,450 Known Deaths
    • COVID Tracking Project:
      • 204,805 New Cases/20,376,721 Known Cases
      • 1,432 New Deaths/343,177 Known Deaths
      • 125,544 Current COVID-19 Hospitalizations
      • 23,231 Currently COVID-19 patients in ICU
      • 7,942 COVID-19 patients currently on ventilator
  • California COVID-19 Stats:
    • Aggregate California ICU Bed Availability: 0.0%
    • 45,352 New Cases/2,391,261 Total Cases (+1.9% increase)
    • 181 New Deaths/26,538 Total Deaths (+0.7%% increase)
    • 12.3% 14-day test positivity rate
    • 21,510 COVID-19 Hospitalizations (+307 patients, +1.4% from prior day)
    • 4,613 COVID-19 ICU hospitalized in CA (+7 patients, +0.2% from prior day)
    • 1,324 ICU beds available (-11 from prior day)
  • San Diego County 
    • Free Testing Sites and Schedule in San Diego
    • State Data:
      • Southern California ICU Bed Availability: 0%
      • 4,427 New Cases/164,498 Total Cases
      • 0 Deaths/1,592 Total Deaths
      • 76.3 cases/100k population (Based on week ending 12/22, Assessed on 12/29. Unadjusted Case Rate)
      • 13.7% Test Positivity (Assessed on 12/29)
      • 19.2% Health Equity Positivity (Assessed on 12/29)
      • 1,543 COVID-19 hospitalized patients (-17 patients, -1.1% from prior day)
      • 375 COVID-19 ICU hospitalized patients (-11 patients, -2.8% from prior day)
      • 186 ICU beds available (+9from prior day)
    • County Data:
      • 3,520 New Cases/ 168,020 Total Cases 
      • 0 New Daily Deaths/1,592 Total Deaths
      • 24% Daily Test Positivity/13.3% (7-day avg after 7-day lag)/12.5% Test Positivity (14-day average)
      • 38.1 cases/100k population (Assessed on 12/29. Adjusted case rate per 100,000 excluding prisons.) 
      • 41% Case Investigation (under 70% goal)
      • -0.1% Decreasing Day Over Day COVID-19 Hospitalizations (+93% increase over 30 days, 1,503 COVID-19 Confirmed Patients)
      • 19% COVID-19 ICU Capacity (+84% increase over 30 days, 371 COVID-19 Confirmed Patients)
      • Total Hospital Census: 4,426 of 4,762 Beds in Use; 615 of 757 ICU Beds in Use
      • 5 New/44 Community Outbreaks (7-day)

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