Saturday, January 09, 2021

CoViD-19: Restriction Adherence Depends On Support | Variants Spreading Exponentially Could Hinder Recoveries | Global Vax Underway |

Somali Wild Ass (Taken 1.20.2020 at San Diego Zoo Safari Park)

This is gonna be another long one because there's just so much to take in right now. I try to keep up with non-news entertainment, I'm almost done with reading Becoming and Nova and I are heavily sucked into a Netflix series at the moment, but I also make sure that I don't post any articles here that I don't read (though admittedly I often only read the summary or abstract of the scientific papers,) so I had some catching up to do. But it's also the weekend and I owe Darren some music time in the speakeasy, so I'm gonna cut out for the night. I've included some well written and strong opinion links as well as some more newsy articles and continued fallout from Wednesday's insurrection at the Capitol. And there's some stuff about Oceano Dunes if you've been following along with the controversy there. But if congress gets to take the weekend off, so too shall I. Be safe out there. 

  • Politics/News:
  • COVID-19:
    • I kind of have a lot to say about this opinion piece. For one thing, it is about England and Scotland which is much different than the US. American non-pharmaceutical interventions have been scattered and implemented by states and regions, inevitably making the pandemic political and combative: blue vs red, health and safety vs economy, science vs hyperbole, "rational truth vs. magical thinking". I see their point and I know I shouldn't be calling people names who are forced into situations where they simply cannot comply as a matter of survival. Still, not being able to put food on your table or pay rent is a whole lot different than believing that people should be able to sit at a brewery with friends to have drinks for Sunday Funday. Pandemic fatigue? How adherence to covid-19 regulations has been misrepresented and why it matters - thebmjopinion (1.7.2021)
      • The discrepancy between what people are doing and what we think people are doing is instructive and points to what is termed the availability effect. That is, we judge the incidence of events based on how easily they come to mind – and violations are both more memorable and more newsworthy than acts of adherence. People sitting quietly at home and watching TV does not make a newspaper headline. People at a house party does. So we develop a biased perception of the level and type of violations, which runs the risk of becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy. If we believe that the norm is to ignore the rules, it may lead us to ignore them too. 
      • ...there is one key area where the perception of low adherence is not at odds with the reality. That concerns levels of self-isolation in those who are infected or else are contacts of those who test positive for the virus, which are estimated to be around 18%. Unlike hand-hygiene and social distancing, self-isolation requires support from others to be possible. This includes support from others in the community, in the form of shopping most obviously. It also requires material support in the form of an income and sufficient space. The lower adherence rates for self-isolation therefore suggest that the issues may have less to do with psychological motivation than with the availability of resources.
      • The problem, then, is that in psychologising and individualising the issue of adherence, one disregards the structural factors which underlie the spread of infection and the differential rates in different groups. One also avoids acknowledging the failures of government to provide the support necessary to follow the rules (most obviously in the case of self-isolation).
    • Opinion: We lost to SARS-CoV-2 in 2020. We can defeat B-117 in 2021 - Stat News  (1.9.2021)
      • Assume that your community is using masks and distancing to maintain flat SARS-CoV-2 transmission levels, but it has detected a single case of B-117 (plus 1,000 cases of SARS-CoV-2). In three weeks, your community may have ten daily B-117 cases (plus 1,000 SARS-CoV-2 cases). In six weeks, there could be 100 cases of the novel variant (plus 1,000 SARS-CoV-2). In nine weeks, half of all cases may be B-117, and the number will continue to increase even once the spread of both viruses slows due to infection and vaccination building up immunity in the population...Because B-117 can grow exponentially even in communities that are keeping SARS-CoV-2 under control, the situation is extremely urgent. If we want vaccination to win this new race, we have to slow down the new virus while it’s still rare.
    • The great task:The race to vaccinate the world against covid-19 has begun in earnest, posing problems for many and providing opportunities for some - The Economist (1.9.2021)
    • How Fast Can Scientists Find the New Coronavirus Strains? The discovery of more contagious variants of SARS-CoV-2 in the US sparks a push for a long-overdue national genomic surveillance network. - Wired (1.8.21)
  • Other Reading/Watching:
  • Global COVID-19 Stats (JHU (1.9.21 9:22pm):
    • 89,630,087 Known Cases
    • 1,926,544 Known Deaths
  • US COVID-19 Stats 
    • (JHU)
      • 22,132,396 Cases
      • 372,428 Deaths
    • (COVID Tracking Project):
      • 264,879 New Cases/21,902,011 Known Cases (8.3%+ Change over 7 Days)
      • 3,544 New Deaths/363,598 Known Deaths
      • 130,781 Current COVID-19 Hospitalizations
      • 23,718 Currently COVID-19 patients in ICU
      • 7,791 COVID-19 patients currently on ventilator
  • California COVID-19 Stats:
    • Aggregate California ICU Bed Availability: 
    • 50,030 New Cases/2,568,641 Total Cases (2% increase)
    • 493 New Deaths/28,538 Total Deaths (+1.8% increase)
    • 14% 14-day test positivity rate
    • 22,836 COVID-19 Hospitalizations (-17 patients, -0.1% from prior day)
    • 4,905 COVID-19 ICU hospitalized in CA (+64 patients, +1.3% from prior day)
    • 1,147 ICU beds available (-63 from prior day)
  • San Diego County 
    • Free Testing Sites and Schedule in San Diego
    • Petco Park Vaccination Superstation is for Phase 1A (Health Care Personnel) ONLY. This is NOT a walk-up or drive-up center. All slots are appointment only, and all slots for Monday are already filled. 
    • State Data:
      • Southern California ICU Bed Availability: 0%
      • 3,850 New Cases/180,510 Total Cases
      • 47 Deaths/1,738 Total Deaths
      • 65.9 cases/100k population (Assessed on 1/5. Unadjusted Case Rate)
      • 13.3% Test Positivity (Assessed on 1/5)
      • 19.0% Health Equity Positivity (Assessed on 1/5)
      • 1,756 COVID-19 hospitalized patients (+24 patients, +1.4% from prior day)
      • 410 COVID-19 ICU hospitalized patients (+10 patients, +2.5% from prior day)
      • 169 ICU beds available (0 from prior day)
    • County Data:
      • 3,538 New Cases/188,600 Total Cases 
      • 53 New Daily Deaths/1,824Total Deaths
      • 12% Daily Test Positivity/16.3% (7-day avg after 7-day lag)/14.2% Test Positivity (14-day average)
      • 53.4 cases/100k population (Assessed on 1/5. Adjusted case rate per 100,000 excluding prisons.) 
      • 37% Case Investigation (under 70% goal)
      • 8.9% Increasing Day Over Day COVID-19 Hospitalizations (1,755 patients. 87% increase over 30 days)
      • 15% Available ICU Capacity (412 COVID, 249 Other patients. 68% increase over 30 days. 40 beds available)
      • 8 New/42 Community Outbreaks (7-day) *3 previously reported outbreaks in past 7 days were removed or moved to a different date

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