Tuesday, January 26, 2021

CoViD-19: As Worldwide Cases Surpass 100M, "Things Are (Still) Going To Continue To Get Worse Before They Get Better" | One Year In, Still Mixed Advice For COVID-19 Treatment, Vaccination Intervals | Dr. Ghaly Reveals Formulas For Projections |

Can't wait to see grumpy Winston now that he's recovering from C-19 (Taken 11.10.2020)

I think I got the mommish award of the year today. In the year that we've been home because of the pandemic, the kid is going through puberty. We've only had a couple opportunities to go shopping over the past year, and dressing rooms are out of the question, so I've been ordering stuff online, but she's gone from children's sizes to women's size. So I've mostly had to guess on loungewear like leggings and sweats and t-shirts. But I took a chance on some Old Navy jeans in women's size and today she graced me with her 'new clothes happy dance' because they were actually the right size. What a relief. 

Other than that, I've been watching as many briefings as I can. Today Dr. Ghaly went into more detail as to why the stay-at-home order was lifted, and I have a lady crush on Biden's Press Secretary Psaki who gave another long one today. Biden did a little briefing, too. Then I watch PBS News Hour, NBC Nightly News, and then local news, but apparently the reporters only seek out restaurants who violate health orders, people who can't get vaccinations, people complaining that the new administration isn't doing enough (six days in), and people who complain about the weather. And then the obligatory shot of people not wearing a mask properly, like the salon owner who was wearing a plastic face shield over the bottom half of her face while breathing over her client to paint in highlights. 

I mean, I've got complaints of my own. My EDD is still not fixed. The people developing the property next door ripped out our fence today and are apparently going to rip out our trees before any kind of replacement fence or wall is reinstalled. Then at some point they'll actually start construction which I'm sure will take at least a year to complete. So, yeah, we all have our shit, but I don't need to keep hearing every goddamn whiner on my television. 

There was so much news today, and like I said, I watched multiple briefings so all those notes are below. But the biggest takeaways are that Biden rolled out more of their vaccination plan including increasing the US order for vaccines, Biden is considering equity across all legislation, departments, programs, rules, etc, and Susan Rice had some nice zingers for the Republicans. 

"Until everyone in the world is safe, no one is safe." - Dr. Larry Brilliant

  • Global COVID-19 Stats (JHU 1.26.2011 8:22pm):

    • 100,248,220 Known Cases
    • 2,156,941 Known Deaths

  • US COVID-19 Stats 

    • (JHU)
      • 25,438,138 Cases
      • 425,073 Deaths
    • (COVID Tracking Project):
      • 143,745 New Cases/25,078,884 Known Cases (4.8%+ Change over 7 Days)
      • 3,734 New Deaths/415,557 Known Deaths
      • 108,957 Current COVID-19 Hospitalizations
      • 20,573 Currently COVID-19 patients in ICU
      • 6,832 COVID-19 patients currently on ventilator

  • California Secretary Ghaly Media Briefing:

    • Stop The Surge- Regional Stay At Home Order
      • The way a region came into stay-at-home is different than exiting
      • Entrance was based on actuals while exit is based on ICU projections
      • Why did we reopen? Dr. Ghaly explains.
      • Projections For 2/21:
        • Southern California: 33.3%
        • San Joaquin Valley: 22.3
        • Bay Area: 25%
        • Greater Sacramento: 27.3
        • Northern California: 18.9%
      • Putting in interventions were meaningful, even without universal compliance
      • Curve has bent, R-effective has dropped meaningfully below 1, ICUs dropped
      • Stay at Home potentially decreased hospitalizations by 25,000, 5,000 fewer ICU admissions
      • One year ago today, first cases were identified in OC and LA, which triggered a year of immeasurable loss, over 37,500 deaths
      • COVID Fatigue- Keep Your Guard Up
        • We must remain vigilant, we're still in extreme purple tier
        • Hospitals look like they can handle what's coming, but we still need to prevent transmission
    • Vaccinate All 58
      • 2.5M doses in 7 weeks
      • 10 day challenge rose to increase pace of vaccinations
      • Tripled pace of administering the vaccine
      • Currently vaccinating 125,000 Californians each weekday
    • Secretary Yolanda Richardson - Covered CA, Vaccine Strategy
      • Simplifying vaccine eligibility framework
      • Standardizing vaccine information and data
      • Addressing supply by administering what we have and seeking additional supply
      • Vaccination Network:
        • Tapping into third-party administrators: public health systems, pharmacies, health systems, public hospitals, community health clinics, pop-up and mobile site
        • As supply grows, expanded fixed and mobile sites
        • Local public health systems will continue to play a key role
        • Continued focus on equity, providers compensated on how well they reach low-income and underserved communities 
      • Technology Tools 
        • MyTurn
          • pilot, when available will let people know when it is their turn and allow to schedule appointments
        • Tools for providers for reporting vaccine updates
    • Focusing on Equity
      • Vaccines will be allocated to make sure low income neighborhoods and communities of color will have access
      • Providers compensated in-part on how well they reach low-income and underserved communities
      • Real time data will allow for adjustments to be made if initial targets aren't met
      • Race, ethnicity, zip codes will always be looked at for equity
    • MEDIA QUESTIONS:
      • State is counting on Federal government to smooth out allocations to make them more predictable. No timeline.
      • State feels stay-at-home order was correct. Regional stay-at-home order is being lifted at a time when we still have high hospital census, but community transmission has dropped so projections are still optimistic. At the time of stay-at-home, removing outdoor dining was to restrict mixing and movement as much as possible (which is science).
      • Stay at home is lifted. There are not parameters for re-entry but numbers will continue to be watched closely.
      • Vaccinations will focus on eligibility to make sure underserved get notified and vaccinated.
      • State feels more comfortable with reliability of projections/stability of data 
      • State is working to scale vaccine distribution for when supply is available
      • Focus is to ensure balance between risk and exposure 
      • Age-based framework, allocation formula is to simplify across state
      • State still getting a short window notification of vaccine distribution, so they still can't speak to incoming vaccinations next week
      • UK B117 variant: variants are always a concern. International community is watching closely. They could change trajectory of pandemic. (Moderna is working on a booster in case it is needed for South Africa variant)
      • Only certain youth/high school sports can resume: outdoor activities with significant distancing may resume for preparation, conditioning, practice and competition.  GUIDANCE FOR YOUTH/RECREATIONAL SPORTS
      • 4 feet distance in schools is to facilitate safe return to schools, not inhibit schools that already have safety plans in place
      • Granular vaccine data (age, race, occupation) is not ready but will be working to roll it out over the next few weeks
      • Third party administrator has not been announced. 


  • California COVID-19 Stats:

    • State of California Safe Schools For All Hub
    • Vaccination progress dashboard
    • Aggregate California ICU Bed Availability: 0.0%
    • 17,028 New Cases/3,153,186 Total Cases (0.5% increase)/22,317 7-day Average
    • 409 New Deaths/37,527 Total Deaths (1.1% increase)
    • 9.0% 14-day test positivity rate/7.9% 7-day test positivity rate (33% decrease over 14 days)
    • 18,039 COVID-19 Hospitalizations (-308 patients, -1.7% from prior day)
    • 20.4% decrease in hospitalizations over last 14 days
    • 4,384 COVID-19 ICU hospitalized in CA (-91 patients,-2.1% from prior day)
    • 10.5% decrease in ICU over last 14 days
    • 1,166 ICU beds available (-2 from prior day)

  • San Diego County 

    • Free Testing Sites and Schedule in San Diego
    • VaccinationSuperstationSD
    • Vaccination Dashboard
    • San Diego County COVID-19 Watch
      • 35,420 Cases in last two weeks; 11,941 interviewed
      • At least one community setting: 4,522 (37.9%) 
      • Reported no potential community exposures: 7,419 (62.1%)
      • Bars and Restaurants: 425 (3.6%) - WHILE WE WERE IN STAY HOME ORDER
      • Retail Locations: 1,143 (9.6%) 
    • Board of Supervisors Meeting:
      • Voted to approve needle exchange program (vote 3-2)
    • State Data:
      • Southern California ICU Bed Availability: 0%
      • 1,437 New Cases/228,630  Total Cases
      • 0 Deaths/2,375 Total Deaths
      • 67.7 cases/100k population (Assessed on 1/26 Unadjusted Case Rate)
      • 12.6% Test Positivity (Assessed on 1/26)
      • 16.7% Health Equity Positivity (Assessed on 1/26)
      • 1,492 COVID-19 hospitalized patients (+1 patients, 0.1% from prior day)
      • 416 COVID-19 ICU hospitalized patients (-7 patients, -1.7% from prior day)
      • 168 ICU beds available (+5 from prior day)
    • County Data:
      • San Diego County Update - County News Center 
      • 1,434 New Cases/230,066 Total Cases 
      • 46 New Daily Deaths/2,421 Total Deaths
      • 9% Daily Test Positivity/12.4% (7-day avg after 7-day lag)/9.6% Test Positivity (14-day average)
      • 49.6 cases/100k population (Assessed on 1/26. Adjusted case rate per 100,000 excluding prisons.) 
      • 72% Case Investigation
      • -6.2% Day Over Day COVID-19 Hospitalizations (1,426 patients. -4.0% increase over 30 days)
      • 16% ICU Capacity (406 patients. +4.0% increase over 30 days)
      • 4 New/52 Community Outbreaks (7-day)
        • Business 31
        • Faith-based Setting 2
        • Government 4
        • Daycare/preschool 6
        • Healthcare 2
        • Construction 1
        • Emergency Services 1
        • Food/Bev Processing 3
        • Warehouse/Distribution 1
        • Comm-Based Org 1

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