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| Rhino Momma and Babe at San Diego Zoo Safari Park (Taken 11.26.2020) |
Darren and I watched a kinda funny but mostly dumb movie called Save Yourselves! last night but then after he went to sleep I watched the documentary Totally Under Control (Hulu) about how the exiting administration has handled the pandemic and it is so unbelievable. Even as someone who has tried to follow it closely since shutdowns first started happening my jaw was to the floor. What's more infuriating is how much was known long before the American public was becoming aware, and how the corruption of this administration is even deeper than you can even imagine. Today the US has surpassed 400,000 deaths (50,000 more than I estimated by Inauguration Day) and all of those deaths lie squarely on this administration's hands. They all need to go to jail and never be allowed any positions in government ever again. The only reason I could even watch was knowing that they'll all be gone on Wednesday and hopefully we can get on track to get our broken 'new normal' lives on track to some forward progress.
Other than lots of news and email, nothing really going on around here. I was up late last night so I slept late and just spent the day getting through all the daily emails. Nothing super exciting. I did watch a lot of news including today's briefing with Secretary Ghaly. It's so funny because he has a tell when he doesn't really want to say what he's thinking, like when people are asking about youth sports while San Diego's cases per 100k hit an astonishing 97.4 unadjusted. Remember that we have to get below 28 for schools to open and below 7 to move back to the red tier, and that's only once our regions projected ICU capacity gets back above 15%. Anyway, we have a lot to look forward to on Wednesday barring any psycho surprises. I'm not the praying type, but let's send positive vibes in the universe and hope the crazies stay at bay and the inauguration and transfer of power is the most low-key boring thing we've ever witnessed in our lives. Stay safe out there.
- COVID-19:
- COVID-19 Memorial Day attended by Biden, Harris (Video)
- In Just A Month, US Jumps From 300,000 To 400,000 Deaths - KHN (1.19.2021)
- What we now know — and don’t know — about the coronavirus variants - STAT News (1.19.2021)
- Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 Lineage — United States, December 29, 2020–January 12, 2021 0 - MMWR (1.15.2021)
- How Operation Warp Speed Created Vaccination Chaos. States are struggling to plan their vaccination programs with just one week’s notice for how many doses they’ll receive from the federal government. The incoming Biden administration is deciding what to do with this dysfunctional system. - ProPublica (1.19.2021)
- This is definitely a bit of an alarmist headline, but if you actually read the article, the important takeaway to me is that China is actually looking at foodborne spread of Sars-CoV-2. The US can't even get enough testing, sequencing, tracing, or stop focusing on dumb research on people's attitudes about masks to start looking beyond for other methods of transmission. At this point it isn't believed to be a source of transmission, but it is still worthy of studying so I keep following the little information that is trickling out.
- Coronavirus in Chinese ice cream raises new alarm over infection via food. Products made in Tianjin contained traces that investigation found may have come from Ukrainian milk powder. It poses different questions to those around food that would be cooked before consumption, with research scarce on infection through what we eat. - South China Morning Post (1.19.2020)
- Politics:
- What Have the Trump Years Meant, and Where Will We Go Now? - Paste (1.19.2021)
- “A Tsunami of Randoms”: How Trump’s COVID Chaos Drowned the FDA in Junk Science. Over its 114-year history, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration has become a global paragon when it comes to drug regulation. In the most consequential year of its existence, however, the agency—and its rookie director—was besieged and almost swallowed by all manner of Trump cronies pushing pet projects, according to new interviews and previously undisclosed documents. A special report. - Vanity Fair (1.19.2021)
- News:
- US court strikes down Trump’s pro-coal power sector rules. Decision gives Biden clean slate to deal with emissions from electricity generation - Financial Times (1.19.2021)
- The Trump administration bailed out prominent anti-vaccine groups during a pandemic. Five groups received more than $850,000 in PPP loans to help small businesses through the pandemic - The Washington Post (1.18.2021)
- Other Reasing:
- Back on December 9th, I linked to a press release from Sea Shepherd revealed the possible discovery of a new whale species. NBC San Diego made a little documentary about it called Uncovered Underwater which you can watch on the NBC San Diego app on Roku or on AppleTV. (They said it's also on their YouTube channel but I haven't yet found it)
- Global COVID-19 Stats (JHU 1/19/2021 7:22pm):
- 96,142,794 Known Cases
- 2,056,241 Known Deaths
- US COVID-19 Stats
- (JHU)
- 24,246,230 Cases
- 401,553 Deaths
- (COVID Tracking Project):
- 144,047 New Cases/23,923,938 Known Cases (6.1%+ Change over 7 Days)
- 2,141 New Deaths/392,428 Known Deaths
- 123,820 Current COVID-19 Hospitalizations
- 23,029 Currently COVID-19 patients in ICU
- 7,688 COVID-19 patients currently on ventilator
- California Dr. Ghaly Media Briefing:
- Cases/Projections
- January 5th, 14-day positivity was 12.7%. 11.6% is an 8.7% decrease
- Hospitalizations have decrease 8.5% over last 14 day- currently 20,262
- ICU hospitalizations have decrease 2.8% over last 14 day- currently 4,693
- Non-pharmaceutical interventions have had an impact
- Hospitalizations have stabilized
- State will continue to support most impacted counties
- Still working to decompress hospitals
- Stopping the Surge- State Support
- Deployed 3,200 Medical Professionals, +500 More to Come
- Alt Care Sites have been stood up
- Skilled Nursing Facilities New Cases are dropping.
- 11/17 - 153
- 12/19 - 730 (Peak)
- 1/17 - 339
- Public needs to stay diligent: stay home, only go out for essential work and needs, wear a mask whenever outside your home, do not gather with people outside of household
- Vaccinate All 58
- 1,525,815 doses administered by today
- 3,226,775 doses have shipped to health departments and health care systems
- Met 1million goal by last week
- Still a reporting delay, still working to improve system
- Lot 41L20A of Moderna Vaccine is being investigated
- State is recommending providers pause administration of this lot
- Fewer than 10 individuals required medical attention
- CA, CDC, FDA, Moderna, Scientific Safety Review Committee all investigating
- No other adverse events reported from this lot
- 330,000 doses from this lot were distributed to 287 providers across the state between Jan 5-Jan 12
- L452R Variant In California (different from UK and SA Variants)
- Working to learn more about variant
- Increasing sequencing (UCSF, Scripps, Public Health, CDC)
- Identified in Santa Clara Kaiser Inflatable Tree Outbreak
- New Messaging: Together we can slow the spread and end the pandemic
- Media Questions:
- Reality is that county/region could still be under 15% capacity today, but come out of Stay-At-Home if projections estimate region will be above in 3-4 weeks. State Forecast Models can be found here.
- State is trying to track where vaccines have been distributed, but it has been extremely challenging to get information from distributors, as well as from recipients, especially "MCEs" (Multi-County Entities)
- Vaccination reporting delay can be 48-96 hours delayed
- Shipped vaccinations are on different days. 3.2 million represent total including 2nd doses which account for differential between vaccinated and distributed.
- Vaccine allocation for 1A looked at proportion of eligibility of persons within the county, i.e. higher skilled nursing facilities within a region. As focus moves to other tiers and phases, allocation will consider those proportions, severity of outbreaks, other impacts as state moves through prioritization.
- Youth sports guidance is being determined with CIF and other partners
- California COVID-19 Stats:
- Aggregate California ICU Bed Availability: 0%
- R-effective is decreasing: R-eff = 0.95
- 23,794 New Cases/2,996,968 Total Cases (0.8% increase)
- 35,669 7-Day Average
- 146 New Deaths/33,739 Total Deaths (0.4% increase)
- 11.6% 14-day test positivity rate/9.9% 7-day positivity rate
- January 5th, 14-day positivity was 12.7%. 11.6% is an 8.7% decrease
- 20,942 COVID-19 Hospitalizations (-26 patients, -0.1% from prior day)
- 4,793 COVID-19 ICU hospitalized in CA (-33 patients, -0.7% from prior day)
- 1,177 ICU beds available (+64 from prior day)
- San Diego County
- Free Testing Sites and Schedule in San Diego
- COVID-19 Watch
- 1/3-1/16: 43,864 positive cases | 11,068 interviewed
- 4,297 (38.8%) at least one potential community exposure
- 6,771 (61.2%) claim no potential community exposure
- State Data:
- Southern California ICU Bed Availability: 0%
- 2,550 New Cases/214,335 Total Cases
- 0 Deaths/2,103 Total Deaths
- 97.4 cases/100k population (Assessed on 1/19. Unadjusted Case Rate)
- 14.8% Test Positivity (Assessed on 1/19)
- 19.8% Health Equity Positivity (Assessed on 1/19)
- 1,705 COVID-19 hospitalized patients (-28 patients, -1.6% from prior day)
- 421 COVID-19 ICU hospitalized patients (-1 patients, -0.2% from prior day)
- 168 ICU beds available (18 from prior day)
- County Data:
- San Diego County COVID-19 Update – 1-19-2021 - County News Center
- 2,498 New Cases/216,835 Total Cases
- 6 New Daily Deaths/2,109 Total Deaths
- 20% Daily Test Positivity/14.3% (7-day avg after 7-day lag)/12.1% Test Positivity (14-day average)
- 60.6 cases/100k population (Assessed on 1/19. Adjusted case rate per 100,000 excluding prisons.)
- 54% Case Investigation (under 70% goal)
- -3.4% Day Over Day COVID-19 Hospitalizations (+patients. % increase over 30 days)
- 12% ICU Capacity (+patients. % increase over 30 days)
- 38 Staffed ICU Beds Available
- 7 New/47 Community Outbreaks (7-day)
- Previously reported outbreaks were removed or moved to different dates without being identified, so below adds up to 48 total when there are actually 47 in the past 7 days
- Business 17
- Retail 2
- Restaurant 1
- Faith-based Setting 2
- Government 4
- Daycare/preschool 7
- Healthcare 3
- Emergency Services 3
- tk-12 school 3
- Warehouse/Distribution 1
- Hotel/Resort/Spa 3
- Private Residences 1
- Comm-Based Org 1
- Universities:
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