Wednesday, September 16, 2020

CoViD-19 Stats | Masking Works* | County Asks State For Exemption of SDSU Cases | Board To Hold Special Meeting To Sue State | Governor Declines Data Exemption For San Diego

Gerenuks eating at San Diego Zoo Safari Park (Taken 8.30.2020)

Oh. My. Gosh. There is soooo much news drama today my head might explode. I woke up this morning to share some of the takeaways from a video I watched with Dr. Gandhi who is the head of the HIV/AIDS program at UCSF. Then I watched the County's media briefing and then the State's, and I'm glad I did in that order because Newsom and Dr. Ghaly are not budging on San Diego's stats. "As we look forward to next week, the potential that San Diego meets for two consecutive weeks the need to go to a more restrictive tier; if that's what the data shows, that's what the state is going to expect." So of course, now our Board wants to sue the state, which is a little scary because as we saw in Pennsylvania earlier this week, the court ruled in favor of the petitioner, that the state had overreached on constitutional rights. Which really just goes to show how political this whole thing is when it never should've been. You have Caputo taking a leave of absence, Trump shouting down Redfield, and a whole bunch of other drama. So I'm going to do two posts today, just because I still have so much to work through. Plus it's Fiestas Patrias, celebrating Mexican Independence Day, so I've got some margaritas with my name on them. Later, of course. Today's stats and news after the jump. Part two will be posted later. 


  • State of California Governor Newsom Media Briefing
    • Crisis on the streets in California 
      • Shelters solve sleep, housing solves homelessness
      • Reiterated details of Project Homekey
        • First awards issued today from $600million in budget
        • $75million awarded to 7 jurisdictions: Tahoe, Lake Elsinore, El Centro, Pittsburgh, Mendocino County, San Jose, Kern County for specific housing projects. 
    • Wildfires
      • Average temperatures in California have been rising decade over decade
      • Vegetation and Forestation management needs to be a priority, but that will not solve this climate problem
      • 3.37 million acres have burned this year vs. 277k acres last year, 1.975 million acres in 2018.
      • 25 known deaths in the state
      • 25 major fires/complexes still burning
      • 38k+ evacuations
      • 4200+ structures destroyed
      • Active fires: CALFIRE incidents
      • Valley Fire: 90% Contained. Holding at 17,664 acres.
    • California COVID-19 Stats:
      • 2,950 New Cases/ Total Cases (% increase)/3,348 7-day average
      • New Deaths,/14,451 Total Deaths (% increase)
      • 3.6% 7-day test positivity rate/3.6% 14-day test positivity rate
      • 22% decrease in hospitalizations over 14 days
      • 22% decrease in ICU over 14 days 
    • Dr. Ghaly regarding San Diego: "As we look forward to next week, the potential that San Diego meets for two consecutive weeks the need to go to a more restrictive tier; if that's what the data shows, that's what the state is going to expect." (at 30:00)
    • Will you exempt SDSU from San Diego numbers? NO. (44:00)
    • Won't businesses (in San Diego) experience whiplash from the opening and closing? "That's why it's up to local leaders to mitigate the spread of this disease."
    • Theme parks and amusement park sector guidelines and other sector guidances will be out very soon. (That usually means by Friday, but he could wait for third week results of new tier system)
    • Media Questions:
      • EDD Fraud report and EDD failures report will be available soon, but not until EDD answers what they will do with short and long-term recommendations
      • We must reduce transmission so kids can get back to school
      • State didn't create guidelines that restrict PAC-12 to resume. BIG-10 is making progress on testing. 
  • San Diego County Media Briefing
    • County Board of Supervisors Meeting on Tuesday heard from Chamber of Commerce, Superintendent of Schools, Board of Hospitals and others
      • We're at risk of going backwards in the tier system
      • Voted unanimously $14.5 million in grants for small businesses 
      • Voted to request from the Governor that SDSU numbers be removed from San Diego stats because they "have nothing to do with business operations" (Except 75% of cases live in OFF CAMPUS housing)
    • 75% of positive cases in San Diego have nothing to do with SDSU at all.
    • On Thursday, there is a special Board of Supervisors Closed Session with legal counsel to initiate litigation against the state for COVID-19 restrictions. You can see the agenda and comment here.
      • Here's my comment: "SD had an opportunity to take the lead in the state with our COVID-19 efforts. We were one of the 1st to mandate facial coverings. But we prioritized bars/restaurants over schools. We've heard constant conflicting messaging on this pandemic - especially from our very white privileged Board. It's no wonder SD has been in the purple tier with our REAL numbers for 2 weeks already. Stop the lawsuit, get to work & take a real lead on this pandemic. Censure Desmond's damaging messaging in the media."
    • Testing speeds have improved, mostly 1-2 days. Commercial labs still taking 3-4 days.
      • State Data:
        • New Cases/ Total Cases
        • Deaths/ Total Deaths
        • 8.1 cases/100k population (Based on week ending 9/5, Assessed on 9/15. State uses Adjusted Case Rate Using Linear Adjustment)
        • 4.5% Test Positivity (Based on week ending 9/5, Assessed on 9/15)
      • County Data:
        • 264 New Cases/43,445 Total Cases 
        • 6 New Daily Deaths/748 Total Deaths
        • 3% Daily Test Positivity/4.4% Test Positivity (14-day average)
        • 7.9 cases/100k population (Based on week ending 9/5, As assessed on 9/15. County is reporting unadjusted case rate per 100,000 excluding prisons)
        • Case Investigation is 98%
        • 5 New/17 Community Outbreaks (7-day)
        • San Diego qualified for the Purple tier this week, however we have to maintain for two weeks to actually move tiers. State Health Officer, Dr. Ghaly says that the state wants to work with counties to prevent movement to more restrictive tiers.
    • Media Questions:
      • 75% of SDSU students are off-campus, only 1 hospitalized. Unique situation that should not be entered into the overall numbers. Since many/most off-campus students are within a close radius of the school in 92115, Board doesn't feel they should count against San Diego numbers.  
      • CDC Study found that 50% of positive tested adults ate at restaurants. Causation is not correlation. People who dine out may also be participating in other risky behavior. San Diego hasn't replicated study here. Anyone going out in public should continue taking proper precautions. 
      • Look at behavior today and moving forward. Dr. McDonald doesn't like "Our fate is sealed" mindset. 
      • Not aware of any k-12 school outbreaks at this time.
      • Gatherings for watching sports or otherwise are always a concern
      • Not asking for preferential treatment, but consideration because our outbreaks are decreasing. (As compared to July & August, which were both off the charts)
    • SDSU COVID-19:
      • Communications strategy: email, weekly digest, student leaders and influencers are helping push out information. Website and weekly digest is accessible to anyone. 
      • Website to report off-campus parties: 70 reports that have been followed up on.
      • 37 more confirmed of 264 in county are from SDSU. 9 probable cases. 722 total SDSU cases. The number is increasing, but slowing in increase because of widespread messaging and testing.
      • 89% had symptoms. 11% asymptomatic.
      • Similarly aged groups (military, for example) have a higher number of asymptomatic.
      • Less than 10 cases that are not SDSU connected but are epidemiologically linked to SDSU students.
      • CSU is a state organization and County health could work with them
      • 4 off-campus residential outbreaks 
  • COVID-19 News:
    • This is a super long video interview, but it has a lot of information. Dr. Gandhi is clear in saying that her belief that masking works is a theory, but goes to great depths to explain virus science and what we know. The interview and the paper she authored are linked below. Also, some of her main takeaways: 
      • Masks May Do More Than We Think (w/Dr. Monica Gandhi) - ZDoggMD Youtube (9.14.2020)
      • Facial Masking for Covid-19 — Potential for “Variolation” as We Await a Vaccine - New England Journal of Medicine (9.8.2020)
      • The medical community should stop shaming anti-maskers. It doesn't work to gain compliance. But bloggers keep blogging. ;)
      • The messaging about masks was and remains terrible. It's human nature to care about oneself. "With a mask, I protect you and you protect me" never worked as a message, and it's not exactly true anyway
      • ANY facial covering can reduce transmission of significant viral loads. So you may contact the novel coronavirus but not as much.
      • Viral load matters. The more virus you are exposed to, the more sick you may become. Masks help reduce the load, and thus many more people, estimated at 40% of infection rate, are asymptomatic. Also why the people in SNFs or in multi-generational housing were getting so much sicker than others. 
      • Death rate has dropped significantly due to masking. Look at Taiwan and Czech Republic as countries with low death tolls as a result of early universal masking. 
      • We should stop worrying about fomitic transfer (from surfaces) because there's no evidence this is a threat. We should be opening all playgrounds. 
      • Non-COVID side effects in society are massive: drug overdoses are up. People skipping regular care and treatment for other illnesses and wellness is causing more emergencies that shouldn't have been. 
      • "Herd immunity" shouldn't be politicized.
    • Fauci: Herd immunity 'not a fundamental strategy' to combat coronavirus - MSNBC (9.16.2020)
    • As controversies swirl, CDC director is seen as allowing agency to buckle to political influence - STAT (9.16.2020)
    • Big Ten football to resume weekend of Oct. 24 - ESPN (9.16.2020)
    • HHS Spokesperson Takes Leave of Absence After Disparaging Government Scientists - NPR (9.16.2020)


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