US Surpasses 200,000 COVID-19 Deaths | County Crosses 45k Cases | New Research Finds Pet Susceptibility | GAO: USA Lacks Plan

September 22 is World Rhino Day (Taken 6.28.2020 at San Diego Zoo Safari Park

In advance of today's weekly media briefing with California Health and Human Services Secretary, Dr. Ghaly, I thought I would do a little explainer on that fun little "linear adjustment factor" and COVID-19 news. State website generally updates at 11am, the County has a special meeting today at 3pm, with County data usually updates after 5pm.
More after the jump. 

I was reading through more of the Blueprint for a Safer Economy and came across this explainer: Update of the case rate adjustment factors for tier assignment. Beginning 9/15, case rates will be adjusted based on California median (instead of the average) testing volume, and will be fixed from the week ending 9/5th for the next 4 weeks assignments through 10/6th. The state testing median was 216.35 as determined on 9/15, while San Diego was at 198.8 tests per 100k people. I still don't understand the math that resulted in our adjustment number of 1.032, but whatever, it appears that is our factor is constant until October. I suppose one bright light for San Diego is that our positivity rate is 3.8% for the 7 day period before a 7-day lag, and if that gets below 3.5%, we no longer use the adjustment factor. But as the US surpassed 200,000 deaths today and the county will surely surpass 45,000 cases with today's statistics update, we are very much embedded in this mess for a long while more. 

• Purple Tier Math: 
• Next reporting is Tuesday with data for the week ending September 12. 
• Using COUNTY numbers reported 9/6-12, here's where we are. 216 + 211 + 247 + 284 + 361 + 445 + 265 = 289.86 7 day average/3,370,418 population. x 100k. = 8.6 cases/100k 
• Using STATE DATA (DATE) (9.12) 361 + (9.11) 284 + (9.10) 247 + (9.9) 211 + (9.8) 216 + (9.7) 308 + (9.6) 443 = 2,070/7 = 295.71 average/3,370,418 x 100k = 8.77 cases/100k
• County Data and State Data differ based on the time of day they report and post, with the State usually posting a day behind. State doesn't provide breakdown charts, so this information is based on the daily numbers they provide on their website, not onset of illness, or other nuances.
• For the week of 9/8, San Diego was given a 1.155 "linear adjustment factor". For the assessment on 9/15, that factor was lowered to 1.032.
• As stated above, the linear adjustment of 1.032 will be used every week through 10/6 when they will reassess our testing. 
• San Diego will land over 8 cases per 100,000 today. 
• COVID-19 News:
• GAO Report:
• COVID-19: Federal Efforts Could Be Strengthened by Timely and Concerted Actions - GAO (9.21.2020)
• New Watchdog Report Shows Trump Administration Still Lacks National Plan on Coronavirus - Select Committee on the Coronavirus Crisis (9.21.2020) 
• COVID-19 likely spreading from people to animals—and vice versa - Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (9.18.2020)
• With Covid-19 insomnia now a thing, as a teacher attests, is a melatonin pill the answer to getting a good night’s sleep? - South China Morning Post (9.20.2020)
• The Public-Shaming Pandemic: Around the world, people who accidentally spread the coronavirus must face both a dangerous illness and an onslaught of online condemnation. - The New Yorker (9.21.2020)
• Waters at Oversight Hearing on Pandemic Response: The Trump Administration Has Utterly Failed in Its Economic Response to This Virus - US House Committee on Financial Services (9.22.2020)