CoViD-19: San Diego Stays Red: "Hold Harmless Due To Data Issues" | Don't Sacrifice Teachers | Chill Your Need To Hike | SDSU Cases Continue To Rise

September 8 is iguana awareness day. Close enough. (Taken 8.13.2020)

Nobody likes to admit that they're wrong, so instead I had to dig deep to prove to myself that I was not. (hahaha). Tuesday came and went and San Diego stayed in Tier 2/Red Tier. Using the state's data, San Diego should've moved into the purple tier, and in fact, it is indicated as so on the state's California Blueprint Data Chart, but there's a caveat specific for San Diego to "hold harmless due to data issues." Whatever that means. 

If we already look into the future and use the current County provided data for the week ending September 5th, without any adjustments, our case rate jumps to 9.96 per 100,000 people of the population, well into the Purple/Tier 1. I'd be shocked if they can find some way to manipulate the data to keep us in red after that. But okay, I'll chill on my math and predictions and leave that to California. 

Darren and I hung out in the speakeasy on Monday night, so it was a low-key day around here. We'll largely be staying home this week just because we know how everyone was out raging this weekend and it always seems like a good idea to quarantine after visiting non-household members, even when we were safe, masked, distanced, goggled, and outside.  Today's weather was a nice reprieve, and hopefully the expected Santa Ana winds are overstated so firefighters can get a better handle on the current wildfires raging in the County and State. Today's stats and reading are after the jump. 

I have a little it of a rant before I get to today's data and information. Chill on the hikes. When there's are heat waves and wildfires raging all over the county, maybe stay the hell home for a few days until it's appropriate to be out in public. Counties, the State, the Park Services are all stretched super thin right now trying to evacuate people and animals whose lives are in imminent danger. They don't need to be distracted because you decided you had had to go on a trail run and twist your ankle or because you didn't pack appropriate amounts of water or because you thought it would be fun to take your dog it. There's no need for all of these mountain and trail rescues and deaths and injuries that keep happening. Just take a breather. They shouldn't have to close the roads and trails for you to know better. 

• State of California Media Briefing with Governor Gavin Newsom
• Wildfires
• Through this time in 2019: 4,927fires burned 118k acres
• So far in 2020: 7,606 Fires 2.3 million acres 
• Since August 15
• 900+ fires statewide
• 25 major fires/complexes
• 42,200 people evacuated
• 1.8 million acres burned
• 14k firefighters currently fighting
• 8 known fatalities
• 3400+ known structures destroyed
• Current fires are 2nd, 3rd, and 4th largest fires in California history
• Heatwave:
• 121 degrees over the weekend is hottest in Los Angeles recorded history
• The state and the public's actions prevented rolling blackouts
• Extreme weather events
• "I have no patience for climate change deniers" - Gov Newsom
• Current weather extremes are even beyond early climate change predictions
• Winds from the east and blowing west (up to 50mph) are impacting numerous public safety power shutoffs to mitigate fire danger
• California COVID-19 Stats:
• 2,676 New Cases/4,302 7-day average/737,911 Total Cases (0.4% increase)
• 32 New Deaths/107 14-day daily average/13,758 Total Deaths (0.2% increase)
• 3.8% 7-day positivity rate/4.3% 14-day test positivity rate
• 24% decrease in hospitalizations/4% of total patients are COVID-19 patients
• 21% decrease in ICU/13% of all ICU patients are COVID-19 patients
• Why didn't San Diego move to the purple tier? Discrepancies in state and county data is looking specifically at testing data and testing information that would inform tier status and also when information is pulled to be on same page. According to the state data page, San Diego stayed as is. "San Diego: hold harmless due to data issues." 
• Blueprint Activity and Business Tiers - If the county moves from Red to Purple, here are the industries affected:
• All Retail (including critical infrastructure, except standalone grocers) - Max 25% capacity
• Shopping Center: Max 25% capacity/close all common areas and food courts
• Personal Care: Outdoor only with modifications
• Places of Worshop: Outdoor only with modifications
• Movie Theaters: Outdoor only with modifications
• Hotels: Must close fitness centers
• Gyms & Fitness Centers: Outdoor only with modifications
• Restaurants: Outdoor only with modifications
• State looks at "R Naught" (R0) data, which has been under 1 for some time, but it isn't precise enough to make a foundational change in behaviors. "Going slow and stringent is going to be the way that carries us forward and ensures that we don't move back." - Dr. Ghaly 
• Why R0 Is Problematic for Predicting COVID-19 Spread - The Scientist (7.13.2020)
• San Diego County Data and Information
• COUNTY OF SAN DIEGO COVID-19 STATS:
• State Data:
• 216 New Cases/40,868 Total Cases
• 3 Deaths/707 Total Deaths
• 6.9 cases/100k population (Data for week ending 8.29)
• 7.9 adjusted cases/100k population (Data for week ending 8.29)
• 4.3% 14-day Test Positivity (Data for week ending 8.29)
• County Data:
• 211 New Cases/41,077 Total Cases 
• 1 New Daily Deaths/709 Total Deaths
• 6.9 adjusted cases/100k population 
• 4% Daily Test Positivity/4.3% Test Positivity (14-day average)
• Case Investigation is 97%
• 3 New/22 Community Outbreaks (7-day)
• Valley Fire Expands: CALFIRE is reporting that the Valley Fire is now 17,565 acres and 11% contained. - 9.08.2020 09:14 PM PDT
• SDSU Extends Stay-At-Home Order Amid Rising COVID-19 Cases - KPBS (9.8.2020)
• A Twitter user who works in on-campus housing posted extensively over the past weekend about the university's handling (or mishandling) of COVID-19 among staff and students. Follow him here, or read the lengthy thread here. 
• COVID-19
• Teachers Are Sleeping In Tents And Working Through Labor—This Is Not Okay - Scary Mommy (9.2.2020)
  "Seriously, America. You want to call yourself great? Prioritize education. Take care of your teachers."
• Mental Health in the US is Suffering—Will It Go Back to Normal? -Covid-19 has left lots of people feeling anxious and depressed. But it’s hard to untangle whether this is a normal response to a difficult situation or actual pathology.- Wired (9.8.2020)
• Sturgis Motorcycle Rally Is Now Linked to More Than 250,000 Coronavirus Cases: One study estimates the public health cost of the super-spreading event is near $12 billion. - Mother Jones (9.8.2020)
• WILDFIRES
• Dozens of hikers still trapped by Creek Fire, conditions making rescue efforts difficult - 10News (9.8.2020)
• Residents Urged to Be Prepared to Evacuate Early and Quickly as Fire Threat Increases: The Valley Fire, which has grown to thousands of acres in just a few days, is a growing threat to communities in San Diego County with the Santa Ana wind event forecast for today. Residents, particularly those who live in communities around the fire perimeter, are asked to be ready to evacuate in 15 minutes or less. - County News Center (9.8.2020)
• Other News & Reading
• Self-directed, project-based learning Why do educated people too often fall for foolish scams and conspiracy theories? - Seth Godin (9.8.2020)

VIDEO: Animals Evacuated from the Valley Fire Are Being Cared for by County Animal Services: San Diego County Animal Services are working with partner agencies to care for animals whisked away from fire danger. Animal Services staff are providing care and refuge for animals at two sites currently. For those in need, the Bonita shelter and the Iron Oak Canyon Ranch site are still accepting evacuated animals, small animals can go to Bonita and large animals can go to the Iron Oak Canyon Ranch site. - County News Center (9.8.2020)