Saturday, September 19, 2020

CoViD-19 Stats | Purple Tier Math |

An oldie of Clark the Red Panda for #InternationalRedPandaDay (Taken 11.20.2019)

I attempted to be a functional human being today and have done my best to avoid the anger and punditry back an forth as a result of the death of RBG. I think I signed about a dozen petitions which will likely do absolutely nothing but then I really had to focus on staying offline. It didn't help that I woke up at the crack of dawn because my dad accidentally dialed me at 5:30am, but I found dumb ways to fill the day: some self-care/grooming (my eyebrows haven't gotten much attention these past several months), putting away laundry, making breakfast tacos. I finally started reading a book I had checked out from the San Diego Public Library app that I'm thus far enjoying called Hieroglyphics. We also vacuumed the house, which led me to a two hour project of taking apart my vacuum to clean the brush, hoses, and filters because it just wasn't sucking the way I want it to. Then I read some more until it lulled me into a proper nap.
It's now evening and my family was all gathered on our little balcony enjoying the golden hour of sunlight before Darren made us some bomb-ass cheeseburgers. Sunday is my mom's birthday, so I'm looking forward to hanging out in my parents' backyard, but I'm gonna have to give my sister shit and be especially sure to distance because she took the girls to yet another gathering where our friends are not masking themselves or their dirty little vector children. Needless to say I've not been invited to their gatherings in a very long time. Maybe next year. Today's stats are after the jump.

  • California COVID-19 Stats:
    • 4,304 New Cases/774,135 Total Cases (0.6% increase)
    • 100 New Deaths/14,912 Total Deaths (0.7% increase)
    • 3.3% 14-day test positivity rate
  • San Diego County Stats
    • State Data:
      • 388 New Cases/44,009 Total Cases
      • 3 Deaths/757 Total Deaths
      • 8.1 cases/100k population (Based on week ending 9/5, Assessed on 9/15. State uses Adjusted Case Rate Using Linear Adjustment)
      • 4.5% Test Positivity (Based on week ending 9/5, Assessed on 9/15)
    • County Data:
      • 286 New Cases/44,293 Total Cases 
      • 3 New Daily Deaths/760 Total Deaths
      • 3% Daily Test Positivity/4.2% (7-day avg after 7-day lag)/3.8% Test Positivity (14-day average)
      • 7.9 cases/100k population (Based on week ending 9/5, As assessed on 9/15. County is reporting unadjusted case rate per 100,000 excluding prisons)
      • Case Investigation is 98%
      • 3 New/25 Community Outbreaks (7-day)
  • SDSU COVID-19:
    • As of Sept. 18 at 6 p.m., 770 confirmed cases and 32 probable cases have been reported for a total of 802 cases. This is 17 more cases than yesterday.
  • Purple Tier Math: 
    • Next reporting is Tuesday with data for the week ending September 12. 
    • Using COUNTY numbers reported 9/6-12, here's where we are. 216 + 211 + 247 + 284 + 361 + 445 + 265 = 289.86 7 day average/3,370,418 population. x 100k. = 8.6 cases/100k 
    • Using STATE DATA (DATE) (9.12) 361 + (9.11) 284 + (9.10) 247 + (9.9) 211 + (9.8) 216 + (9.7) 308 + (9.6) 443 = 2,070/7 = 295.71 average/3,370,418 x 100k = 8.77 cases/100k
    • County Data and State Data differ based on the time of day they report and post, with the State usually posting a day behind. State doesn't provide breakdown charts, so this information is based on the daily numbers they provide on their website, not onset of illness, or other nuances.
    • For the week of 9/8, San Diego was given a 1.155 "linear adjustment factor". For the assessment on 9/15, that factor was lowered to 1.032. Using either of these against the week ending 9.12 STATE & COUNTY data, we remain over 8 cases/100k. 
    • I cannot imagine a way that the County does not move to the more restrictive purple tier on Tuesday unless our testing is so high that our linear adjustment factor is lower than 0.802 which would be the lowest in the state behind San Francisco. 

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