CoViD-19: The Myth of "COVID Parties" | Reopening Regression | Event Risk Assessment |

Black-Footed Cat at Safari Park (Taken 7.9.2020)

I got a press release from San Diego Zoo Global announcing that two black-footed cat kittens were born two months ago at the San Diego Zoo Safari Park. "The kittens—male Ryder and female Skyler—were born to mother Arwen and father Sawyer on April 28, 2020," it says. They're currently off exhibit, but if I can find the b-roll or find a way to edit and share it, I will. Today is pretty quiet and we're going to head to Fiesta Island dog park, so I'm just gonna keep it short today. Some links after the jump. 

• Can we talk about "COVID Parties"? It's obvious that people are partying and going to bars and having house-parties and church parties and weddings and going to lake parties and theme parks and living their lives as if the novel coronavirus doesn't exist, or in spite of it, because they don't believe there's a real threat. In fact, the last week has had so-called experts all over our screens telling us that things aren't so bad, that we can open schools, that everything will be fine. When I heard about the latest viral story (listed below), I gave it a big "yeah fucking right." Not that I don't believe the guy died, or that he probably truly regretted his actions. But those last words? Give. Me. A. Break.  Maybe I'm just cynical, but if I'm dying, and know I'm dying from COVID-19, my last words (if I'm even able to speak because I'm literally dying from not being able to breathe and am probably intubated with a ventilator), would probably be like "tell my fam I love them" or "I'm not ready" or "help me" or something short and sweet. It certainly wouldn't be, "I think I made a mistake, I thought this was a hoax, but it’s not." Why they are direct quoting this in hundreds of articles is so terribly annoying. That's why I was so glad to see this amazing article today in Wired addressing this very thing. 
• The Latest Covid Party Story Gets a Twist: Like any urban legend, this one changes slightly with each telling. (Wired 7.14.2020):
  None of this is meant to suggest that public officials are lying. Stories inevitably mutate as they’re passed from one person to another. Nor should anyone make light of a tragic, untimely death. People like Jane Appleby are trying desperately to get the American public to take the coronavirus seriously. If she hears a perfect cautionary tale, it isn’t necessarily her responsibility to investigate whether it’s too perfect before passing it along. 
• 30-year-old dies after attending 'Covid party' in Texas- Patient said: ‘I think I made a mistake, I thought this was a hoax, but it’s not’, according to health official - The Guardian (7.12.2020)
• 43 new coronavirus cases have been linked to one large house party in Michigan - CNN (7.14.2020)
• He posted his regrets over attending a party in California. The next day, he died of coronavirus - CNN (7.3.2020)
• ‘The price of denial’: Teenager died after attending church party as Florida reopened - McClatchy DC (7.10.2020)
• Florida, Texas and California account for about one-fifth of the world's new coronavirus cases - NBC (7.14.2020)
• My best friend from high school posted this interesting risk-assessment tool based on the real-time numbers and statistics. You can move the 'event size' bar and get a risk. So right now, an event of 100 people in San Diego has an 86% "risk level" which "is the estimated chance that at least 1 COVID-19 positive individual will be present at an event in a county, given the size of the event." Projecting that, to say, the North Park Festival of Arts with a modest estimated crowd of 5000, the risk is over 99%. Of course, it doesn't take into account outdoor vs indoor, mask usage, and physical distancing, but just solely the risk of the presence of an infected person or persons. 
  COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment Planning Tool - Georgia Tech Applied Bioinformatics Lab

(Source: Statista 7.13.2020)