|In The Before Times at Ken Club (Which We Now Know Wasn't Actually The Before Times)|
I guess it finally happened to me. I hit the "pandemic wall," or as I've been referring to it, the pandemic pendulum, swinging from optimistic, rah-rah, 'we can do this' attitude to today when I literally could not get out of bed. I woke up at a somewhat reasonable time, scrolled through social media, watched a little bit of the County Board of Supervisors meeting, watched a little bit of the impeachment hearing, and then decided, 'fuck it' and went back to sleep. I even had a zoo reservation that I just couldn't motivate to suit up into actual clothes and go into the world.
At the end of last year, there was definitely this feeling of 'just get us to inauguration and things will start to get better,' but with the insurrection and the inauguration and the impending governor recall effort (and every stupid news channel giving it oxygen) and states willfully pulling basic COVID safety measures to defy the new administration, and people just going on about their lives like everything is normal again it is just too much sometimes. I am so grateful for the moves that President Biden is taking with his executive orders and whatnot, but I'm so angry at the opposition he gets day after day. Sit down. It isn't your turn anymore. You gave us four dreadful years and killed almost half a million people with your incompetence, you have nothing of value that we need to hear.
I'm angry that people are out drinking at bars and breweries. I'm angry that the news still show story after story of people not wearing masks or wearing them wrong, especially when they're in positions to know better. I'm tired of people going back to normal lives while post after post in my social feeds is yet another friend who is sick or another friend mourning a COVID death among their family or friends, often linked to yet another GoFundMe to cover medical and funeral bills.
I'm tired of trying to call EDD and navigate their 2 minute phone tree only to be hung up on every single time. I'm trying to be patient. "The glitch will be fixed by the end of January," they said. And so I'm still waiting. I'm so frustrated.
But the best thing I can say about all of this is that all of these feelings are totally normal. The pandemic pendulum swings. It won't be like this forever. We will get vaccines. We will get relief. We will see friends again. We will hug our loved ones again. There will be live music again. There is room for anger and grief and outrage while also having room for joy and gratitude and love. So here we are.
Be safe out there.
- A Q&A with WHO’s emergencies chief on Covid-19, why he’s hopeful, and when normalcy might return - STAT News (2.9.2021)
"But people have suffered in terms of jobs, and people have lost the trajectory of their lives in terms of income or education. So there is a natural desire to get back to that...The thing is convincing them that the fastest way back to that is actually to move from an emergency response to a much more comprehensive control program that will include sustaining personal behaviors into the future...But if people think that we can exchange vaccines for personal behavior, and that getting the vaccine is the passport to spin class, I think they’re going to be sorely shocked when we sleepwalk our way back into the next surge, into the next wave, and then into the next lockdowns."
- Decline in COVID-19 Hospitalization Growth Rates Associated with Statewide Mask Mandates — 10 States, March–October 2020 - MMWR (2.5.2021)
- Why The Pandemic Is 10 Times Worse Than You Think - NPR (2.6.2021)
- COVAX Statement on New Variants of SARS-CoV-2 - WHO (2.8.2021)
It is important to note that primary analysis of data from Phase III trials has so far shown – in the context of viral settings without this variant – that the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine offers protection against severe disease, hospitalisation and death. This means it is vitally important now to determine the vaccine’s effectiveness when it comes to preventing more severe illness caused by the B.1.351 variant.
- Equity in Vaccination: A Plan to Work with Communities of Color Toward COVID-19 Recovery and Beyond - JHU Center For Health Security
- Estimation of the fraction of COVID-19 infected people in U.S. states and countries worldwide - PLOS ONE (2.8.2021)
In conclusion, this study demonstrates that severe under-ascertainment has obscured the true severity of widespread COVID-19 all over the world. In the majority of the 50 countries, actual cumulative cases were estimated to be 5–20 times greater than the confirmed cases. Given that the confirmed cases only capture the tip of the iceberg in the middle of the pandemic, the estimated sizes of current infections in this study provide crucial information to determine the regional severity of COVID-19 that can be misguided by the confirmed cases.
- Twenty-Six Words Created the Internet. What Will It Take to Save It? Jeff Kosseff wrote the book on Section 230, the law that gave us the internet we have today. He talks with ProPublica Editor-in-Chief Stephen Engelberg about how we got here and how we should regulate our way out. - ProPublica (2.9.2021)
- Senate votes to proceed with Trump's impeachment trial, but conviction may prove elusive - Reuters (2.9.2021)
- Trump fumes, GOP senators baffled by legal team’s debut - AP News (2.9.2021)
- Why the Second Impeachment of Donald Trump Is More Important Than the First. His betrayal of the nation was profound and existential. There must be a full reckoning. - MOther Jones (2.9.2021)
- Other Reading/Watching:
- If You’ve Been Working from Home, Please Wait for Your Vaccine. You can’t ethically go ahead of the very people who made it possible for you to do so—at great personal risk. - Scientific American (2.2.2021)
- American health care is a caste system. Covid vaccine distribution shouldn't be. The health care system already pushes vulnerable people out. Don’t make it worse by cutting the line for a Covid vaccine. - MSNBC (2.7.2021)
- White House COVD Task Force Andy Slavitt, Dr. Fauci, Dr Walensky:
- Cases and Hospitalizations are down about 20% but deaths remain high
- Declining cases and hospitalization numbers are still significantly higher than Summer 2020 peak
- 600+ cases of variants identified in US due to higher sequencing
- Sequencing has increased 10-fold in past 3 weeks
- Now is not the time to travel.
- The more screening, the better. Encouraging testing for domestic flights is not off the table.
- No data to indicate that Sars-Cov-2 mutations are less virulent
- Transmissibility and Virulence are key factors. No indication that current mutations are more virulent, but they are more transmissible. The more people that spread the virus, the more people get sick, and the more people die.
- Mitigation measures still need to be used. US is still over 100k cases per day. Iowa is stupid for rolling back restrictions. (my words, not theirs)
- Most infections come from community into the schools. When it is transmitted in schools, it is because of breaches in masking and distancing. If we want to open schools, we need to reduce community transmission.
- With variants, community transmission high, hospitalizations high, states should not be rolling back restrictions.
- Global COVID-19 Stats (JHU 2/9/2021 9:22pm):
- 106,902,907 Known Cases
- 2,341,004 Known Deaths
- US COVID-19 Stats
- CDC COVID-19 Vaccination Data Tracker
- 27,189,761 Cases
- 468,103 Deaths
- (COVID Tracking Project):
- 92,986 New Cases/26,968,049 Known Cases (2.9%+ Change over 7 Days)
- 2,795 New Deaths/458,250 Known Deaths
- 79,179 Current COVID-19 Hospitalizations
- 16,129 Currently COVID-19 patients in ICU
- 5,216 COVID-19 patients currently on ventilator
- California COVID-19 Stats:
- State of California Safe Schools For All Hub
- Vaccination progress dashboard
- Aggregate California ICU Bed Availability: 13.6%
- R-effective: 0.78
- 8,251 New Cases/3,354,591 Total Cases (0.2% increase)
- 327 New Deaths/44,477 Total Deaths (0.7% increase)
- 5.6% 14-day test positivity rate
- 11,904 COVID-19 Hospitalizations (-181 patients, -1.5% from prior day)
- 3,264 COVID-19 ICU hospitalized in CA (-49 patients, -1.5% from prior day)
- 1,384 ICU beds available (+7 from prior day)
- San Diego County
- Free Testing Sites and Schedule in San Diego
- Vaccination Dashboard
- State Data:
- Southern California ICU Bed Availability: 10.6%
- R-effective: 0.80
- 698 New Cases/247,259 Total Cases
- 0 Deaths/2,821 Total Deaths
- 35.4 cases/100k population (Assessed on 2/9. Unadjusted Case Rate)
- 9.1% Test Positivity (Assessed on 2/9)
- 12.1% Health Equity Positivity (Assessed on 2/9)
- 1,039 COVID-19 hospitalized patients (-40 patients, -3.7% from prior day)
- 321 COVID-19 ICU hospitalized patients (-7 patients, -2.1% from prior day)
- 184 ICU beds available (+11 from prior day)
- County Data:
- Board Votes to Expand Rental Assistance, Small Business Grant Programs - County News Center
- San Diego County COVID-19 Watch
- 1/24-2/6: 19,632 Total Cases
- Out of 10,206 interviewed, 6,547 (64.1%) claimed no potential community exposure. 4,052 (39.7%) reported household exposure.
- 279 K-12 education exposures
- 789 New Cases/248,051 Total Cases
- 32 New Daily Deaths/2,853 Total Deaths
- 703,200 Doses Shipped/507,390 Doses Administered
- 6% Daily Test Positivity/8.4% (7-day avg after 7-day lag)/6.8% Test Positivity (14-day average)
- 34.2 cases/100k population (Assessed on 2/9. Adjusted case rate per 100,000 excluding prisons.)
- 97% Case Investigation
- -9.8% Day Over Day COVID-19 Hospitalizations (+patients. % increase over 30 days)
- 20% ICU Capacity (+patients. % increase over 30 days)
- 53 Staffed ICU Beds Available
- New/72 Community Outbreaks (7-day)
- Business 35
- Retail 4
- Restaurant 1
- Faith-based Setting 4
- Government 5
- Daycare/preschool 4
- Healthcare 4
- Construction 3
- Food/Bev Processing 1
- tk-12 school 2
- Adult Daycare 1
- Gym 2
- Hotel/Resort/Spa 2
- Comm-Based Org 3
- Social Club 1