san diego: dialed in: CoViD-19: Why Case Numbers Still Matter | Testing Not Meeting Demand | Biden Lays Out Omicron Plans; Expands Defense Production Acts For Supply-Chain Issues |

Kamaria learning to joust with one of her many Aunties (taken 12.19.21)

President Biden spoke today about the winter omicron surge and plans to get free rapid tests, available on demand, out to people in January. I should preface by saying that I cannot imagine what 2021 would've looked like if TFG was still in office, but that said, sometimes it is so frustrating listening to Biden speak (and cough). People are trying to be safe for Christmas. Yes, vaccinations and boosters are an overarching priority in general. But going to get a shot today does nothing to protect you for Christmas, or even New Years. So yes, you should get vaccinated yesterday, but at this point anyone who isn't fully vaccinated should not be traveling, should not mixing households, should not be eating out, should not be attending events, and should not be working in jobs with the public. We need local health policies and messaging to reflect that. But apparently we have to worry about alienating people who already won't listen to anyone about vaccines or masks or testing, so the grown-ups in the room get these shaky messages while they dumb it down for the ding-dongs. And as for the repeated comments that "nobody saw it coming," I think if you read the right scientists on Twitter, you know that this wasn't true in any of the waves, including delta and the current omicron variant, although the vaccine evasion is a scary worst-case scenario we were warned about long before vaccines were even available, we just never hoped or thought that would actually happen. Here we are.

As I mentioned earlier, I spent my morning driving around to get another pair of Binax Now test kits. There's a limit of one package per person, so I've been waiting for the 40% off single item coupons from CVS and then I'll go get a package. We used the home tests when Nova got back from Missouri, but are saving the rest -- I now have three boxes, which is six tests -- to check ourselves before gathering for Christmas. Dr. Wen rightfully pointed out that while half a billion tests in Biden's plan sounds impressive, Americans should be home-testing twice weekly. Half a billion tests is roughly 1.612 tests per person over 2 years old. This solves almost nothing.

If we can actually go in for a walk-up test in the next day or two, we will, but I'm also not subjecting my family to waiting in some crazy line around potentially sick people. Earlier tonight we went to the San Diego Zoo because I still hadn't seen the projection show "Aurora" this season, and I overheard a girl talking shit about her company's CEO, because he is still not eating out in restaurants. "Can you imagine??" she asked her friends. That was enough for us to drop back and give far more space between our groups. When are we going to just scream "COVID is airborne!!!" ? Tomorrow is the big data dump day before Christmas I'll be back here and then maybe take the rest of the week off. We'll see.

Stay safe out there.

COVID-19:

You're going to keep hearing that we should stop worrying about case numbers and focus on hospitalizations and deaths. I don't agree, and here's why:

I've heard so many numbers tossed around, but basically the more cases, the more chance that some of those will result in hospitalizations and deaths. Even if fewer people are hospitalized by omicron than delta as a percentage, the transmission rate could nullify that advantage. The denominator matters.
This is our work force. For every person who tests positive, we are looking at 5-10 days that they're supposed to isolate and/or quarantine. For some, illness will last longer. This could wipe out entire staffs at a single restaurant, a single grocery store, an entire factory, a fleet of delivery drivers, a team of truck drivers. Or worse, people who are positive continue to work and shed virus to anyone and everyone around them keeping this going.
This is a global pandemic. Last week, China shut down entire provinces and all of the factories within them. The will all kick back to US consumers (like it or not) in the coming months.
California still has about 12 Million unvaccinated people. As I've said a dozen times, the same people who refuse vaccines are the same who refuse masks or even the most basic NPIs or courtesies to people around them. They are the least concerned about the virus and most concerned with their freedom and living "normal" lives, that you're more likely to encounter these people in public settings.
A new study disputes that Omicron is less severe than Delta.

Omicron infections no less severe than delta, early study suggests - Becker's Hospital Review (12.21.21)

We still don't know nearly enough about Long-COVID, especially specific to the variants. Why take chances?

Omicron Is Taking Over the United States. The Omicron variant now makes up more than 70 percent of COVID-19 cases across the United States. - Vice (12.21.21)
Biden announces free tests and defends the White House response as COVID cases surge - npr (12.21.21)
TOMORROW: Governor Newsom to Announce New State Actions to Protect Californians Amid Growing Threat of Omicron Variant - Office of Governor Gavin Newsom (12.21.21)

Will require boosters for health care workers
Students are required to be fully vaccinated for term after vaccine gets full authorization.
All school staff and state workers must be fully vaccinated or tested weekly.
California to require booster shots for healthcare workers - AP News (12.21.21)

WHO Weekly Epidemiological Update - 12.21.21

During the week 13-19 December, the global number of new cases remained similar to those reported during the previous week; however, the weekly incidence of deaths decreased by 9%. Nonetheless, this corresponds to over 4.1 million new cases and just under 45 000 new deaths. As of 19 December, over 273 million cases and over 5.3 million deaths have been reported globally