Monday, November 23, 2020

CoViD-19 CA Hospitalizations +77% in 14-Days | SD County Has 61 Outbreaks in 7 Days | If Limited-Stay-Home Doesn't Work, Expect Lockdowns | Have You Heard? Gatherings Are Risky! | #BlackOutBezos

MGMT at Wonderfront (Taken 11.23.2019)


You guys. There was so much news today that I'm gonna save some of it for tomorrow, though I suspect tomorrow's Dr. Ghaly media briefing will be as longwinded and repetitive as today's was. I was actually surprised that Governor Newsom did a briefing today because he's in quarantine with his family. So yeah, there's COVID news, San Diego County is at 61 community outbreaks and 1167 cases, which is astonishing. The governor had to defend his "limited stay-at-home" order, saying that they hope it will lower the state's numbers by reducing risky behavior, that people out drinking tend to let down their guard, but if you read between the lines, he's telling all of us now that if it doesn't work, we will have to go more extreme in lockdown. On top of all that, a local lawsuit to overturn the State/County's pandemic response restrictions was denied by the judge. 
The big news, however, was that the GSA has finally signed whatever she needed to sign to allow the Biden transition to begin. That's about as much of a concession I think we're going to get from the covidiot-in-chief, seeing as he's trying to drag it out and continue raising money to pay for all of his campaign debt and to stall his inevitable indictments. 
Today we went to the San Diego Zoo, but everyone is off this week so it was more crowded than I personally like. And you can really tell when it's full of local passholders vs. tourists because the incorrect mask-wearing is abundant. I was going to go off on that but I'll save if for later. Right now I'm going to drag my family to Balboa Park and try and snag some family photos in front of the Dr. Seuss tree. Lots of links and stuff after the jump. 

  • California COVID-19 Governor Newsom/Secretary Ghaly Media Briefing:
    • STATS:
      • 8,337 New Cases/1,110,370 Total Cases (0.8% increase) 
      • 11,591 7-Day Average New Daily Tests  
      • 18-49 year-olds represent 60% of all new cases (Only 7% of Deaths)
      • Seniors 65+ only 10% of cases but 75% of deaths 
      • 198,379 7-day average of daily tests
      • 9.8% 7-day positivity rate across the US
      • 50 New Deaths/18,726 Total Deaths (0.3% increase)
      • 5.5% 14-day test positivity rate/5.8% 7-day positivity rate
      • 77% increase in COVID-19 hospitalizations over 14 days
      • 55% increase in COVID-19 ICU over 14 days 
      • COVID-19 patients are 7% of hospital system capacity
      • COVID-19 patients are  17% of ICU capacity
    • California has been preparing:
      • 11 surge facilities if necessary with 1,862 additional beds
      • Backup inventory of PPE
    • California's COVID-19 Approach (See last week for detail)
      • Prevention
      • Testing
      • Isolation
      • Vaccine
        • Playbook released 9/16/2020
        • CA was 1 of 5 jurisdictions engages in Vaccination Microplanning with CDC & DOD 
        • Vaccine Plan was released to CDC on 10/16/2020
        • State has experience including H1N1, HepA, Annual Flu
        • History of well organized partnerships at all levels
      • California's Immunization Infrastructure
        • Already distributes approx 19 million flu vaccines annually, usually within 3-4 month window
        • Tens of millions of routine vaccinations administered annually
        • Administered in clinical settings
        • Local health departments have proven ability to provide surge capacity, like doubling when H1N1 went out
        • Anticipating FDA Approval in Early December, but rollout for mass distribution is still many months off. March-July will begin to scale. 
        • Vaccine Distribution & Planning
          • Scientific Safety Review Workgroup
            • Have already reviewed Phase I & II of Moderna & Pfizer vaccines. Thus far no concerns. 
            • Will access Phase III as soon as available 
          • Drafting Guidelines Workgroup
            • Meets every Friday. Already 3 meetings.
            • Developing guidelines for Phase 1A to target 2.4 million healthcare workers in CA
            • Will develop remaining prioritization by mid-January based on availability of vaccinations
            • Plans will be available to the public on California COVID Page
          • Community Advisory Vaccine Committee
        • Pfizer will be using direct engagement to already existing clinics, hospitals, relationships. 
          • Requires ULT Freezers, Dry Ice
          • State is working to procure additional freezers, transport containers, smaller freezers 
        • Modena vax will be distributed by McKesson, an intermediary
          • More easily stored, transported
        • CA has recieved $28 million from the CDC to date:
          • $10 million allocated to local health for planning
          • $6 million allocated for staffing
          • Remaining funding should be released soon
          • CDC is expected to release a second round of funding by Phase II
          • Need Additional $$$ for 
            • Public Awareness/Media Campaign
            • Supplies and materials needed to support distribution such as PPE
            • IT Systmes/Data Management 
              • Accurate tracking of data & distribution
                • Provider registration
                • Reporting
                • Tracking
                • Ordering
                • Real time status of vaccine location and use
              • Builds on existing CA Immunization Registry (CAIR)
    • Limited Stay at Home Order
      • Non-essential activities stop from 10pm-5am
      • Applies to counties in purple tiers
      • Effective through 12/21/2020
      • Reducing movement and mixing of households slows spread, hospitalizations, and deaths, while protecting essential workers and high-risk individuals
      • Discouraging gathering on Thanksgiving
        • Hospitals are already feeling the impacts of the surge
    • Travel Advisory:
      • Discourage non-essential out of state travel
      • 14-day quarantine after return
    • Thanksgiving:
      • Gathering is risky
      • Hospitals are already seeing higher surge than summer peaks
      • Do our part to stop the spread 
      • Maybe move it earlier to enjoy warmer outside weather
      • Celebrate with your own household 
      • Drop off meals for those at high-risk
    • Current Tier Status:
      • Last Week: Purple 41/Red 11/Orange 4/Yellow 2
      • No new assessment today
      • There will be more counties moving to more restrictive tiers on Tuesday, but some may be reaching their first week moving forward
    • Media Questions:
      • Why the curfew? Studies from Virginia, Massachusetts, other cities: California is experiencing a surge that we haven't before, so have to be able to use everything in the toolbox. Every little thing matters. During that time, non-essential gatherings happen, people get too close, take off masks, celebrate and allows quicker transmission. If it doesn't drive numbers down, we could look at additional measures. Guidance isn't just for bars and restaurants, but also includes homes, parties, etc. Meant to complement curfews from other areas and enhance with 'stay-at-home'. Committed to a 4 week process. This is a targeted strategy to avoid a full scale lockdown. Will be evaluating its cause and effect. 
      • Dinner at French Laundry was in an orange-tiered county. There were too many people at the dinner. Governor apologized, "full stop," and will be better. 
      • Quarantine sucks and Governor understands not everyone has same supports and resources that he does, but has done several helps statewide. Federal government needs to step up with stimulus ASAP. 
      • Governor's quarantine: Found out Friday about contact with positive CHP officer. Health officer told them to wait 48 hours before getting tested. Whole family took tests on Sunday and were negative. 
      • Governor has taken numerous PCR and antigen tests over the past several weeks. Has been negative on every test he has taken. He was reluctant to test earlier in pandemic because of testing shortages, but once he visited prisons, has been testing regularly. 
      • Appealing injunction to stop executive orders. Believe that it impedes in governing state in time of crisis. 
  • San Diego County Stats
    • State Data:
      • 938 New Cases/71,649 Total Cases
      • 2 Deaths/968 Total Deaths
      • 12.1 cases/100k population (Based on week ending 11/10, Assessed on 11/16. Unadjusted Case Rate Using Linear Adjustment)
      • 2.6% Test Positivity (Based on week ending 11/10, Assessed on 11/16)
      • 6.5% Health Equity Positivity (Based on week ending 11/10, Assessed on 11/16)
    • County Data:
      • Keep Holiday Celebrations Small, Short, Safe - County News Center
      • 1,167 New Cases/72,815 Total Cases 
      • 0 New Daily Deaths/968 Total Deaths
      • 5% Daily Test Positivity/6.4% (7-day avg after 7-day lag)/5% Test Positivity (14-day average)
      • 10.7 cases/100k population (Based on week ending 11/10, Assessed on 11/16. Unadjusted case rate per 100,000 excluding prisons.) 
      • Case Investigation is 91%
      • 13 New(11.22)10 New (11.21) 12 News (11/20)/61 Community Outbreaks (7-day)
        • restaurant/bar 11
        • business 14
        • restaurant 4
        • grocery 1
        • private residences 1
        • tk-12 school 2
        • faith-based agency 4
        • gym 2
        • daycare 4
        • healthcare 2
        • government 1
        • retail 9
        • hotel/resort/spa 1
        • warehouse/distribution 2
        • Emergency Services 1
        • Adult Daycare 1
        • Construction 1
    • Universities:
  • COVID-19:
  • Politics/Other News/Reading:

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