Monday, November 09, 2020

CoViD-19: US Surpasses 10 Million Cases | 50+ Million Cases Worldwide | Biden Names Coronavirus Transition Advisory Board | California To Testify In ACA Supreme Court Case

A Karen I Love (Taken at San Diego Zoo 3.9.2020)

Today's news cycle was just about as wild as expected so I've been doing a lot of watching/reading today. All of those links are after the jump. I also have really tried to anticipate tomorrow's number to see if the state will actually move San Diego to the purple tier and it's really hard to predict because here's what I found: that using the County's onset numbers minus inmates, we averaged 337.57 cases per day for the week ending on Halloween. But our testing for that week averaged 341.5 per 100k, which is a factor of 1.4276, which affects our adjustment rate. So I found that we're at 10.02 cases per 100k unadjusted, but could fall somewhere between 7.5 with a .75 adjustment factor to 6.3 with a .625 adjustment factor. With our factor last week, we'd be at 8.56. But all of this is assuming that the onset numbers I'm looking at are the accurate ones (247+435+350+349+334+345+303), that they're still using 3370418 as our population, and none of this takes into account the health equity factor. So all of this to say is I don't know, it's unlikely our numbers can be adjudicated below 7.1, but part of the 'slow and stringent' plan means the state and county work together to try to avoid moving backward, because once we do, it will be really, really hard to move back forward. As it is, it's our testing that has kept us red because we can't get our shit together to stop the spread. I've posted this numerous times before, but this is what will change between tiers. 
Since we've been lazing around the house and binging on news, I haven't done much else today, so I'm gonna cut out and enjoy some family time. Darren is making terriyaki chicken thighs, rice, steamed veggies, and I made Hawaiian style macaroni to go with it all. Yum!


  • President- Elect Joe Biden Announces Coronavirus Transition Advisory Board
    • Biden Names 13 Health Experts To COVID-19 Transition Advisory Board - KPBS (11.9.2020)
    • Includes Dr. Vivek Murthy, a former surgeon general; Dr. David Kessler, a former F.D.A. commissioner; and Dr. Marcella Nunez-Smith, a Yale professor
    • Coronavirus Planning:
      • Making rapid testing more widely available
      • Making a corps of national contact tracers
      • Developing a vaccine distribution 
      • Develop clear guidances with resources for small businesses, schools, workers 
      • Scaling up life-saving therapeutics and treatments
      • Equitably, efficiently, free vaccines when available
      • Ramp up production of PPE
      • Focus on equity and communities of color
      • Will spare no effort to turn the pandemic around after swearing in
    • The election is over. Stop politicization of pandemic, of wearing masks. 
  • California COVID-19 Governor Gavin Newsom/Dr. Mark Ghaly Media Briefing:
    • Expect more restrictive tiering on Tuesday as case rates continue to grow
    • Restrictions are based on data, epidemiology, local conditions not politics
    • Pfizer announcement is good news but mass distribution is still many months away. Don't let down guard now. 
    • Scientific Safety Review Workgroup/Drafting Guidelines Workgroup have both been meeting 
    • ACA Arguments Start Tuesday in Supreme Court
      • If ACA is struck down in Supreme Court, it would cause chaos across the country
        • Protects 6.1 Million in California with pre-existing conditions
        • Limits higher premiums due to age or gender
        • Children may lose coverage on parents' plans
        • State could lose $20b in federal funding for Medical
        • $7 b premium assistance could be lost
        • 1.5 million currently enrolled in Covered California
      • Health Care Affordability
        • State was first to provide subsidies for middle-income
        • Record low premium changes (.5% increase)
        • Coverage for all young adults, regardless of immigration status
      • Peter Lee: ACA/Covered California Administrator
        • Uninsured went from 17.2% to 7.7% (9.5% largest decrease in US)
        • Still 3,446,000 million uninsured in California
        • New messaging/launch to encourage open-enrollment to Medical or Covered California. "Get Covered. Stay Covered."
        • Enroll Now Coveredca.com through January 31st 
    • California Stats:
      • 7,212 New Cases/971,851 Total Cases (0.7% increase)
      • 5,889 7-day New Case Daily Average
      • 14 New Deaths/17,997 Total Deaths (0.1% increase)
      • 3.7% 14-day test positivity rate (10/19 was 2.5%)
      • 28.6% Increase in COVID-19 Hospitalizations over 14-days (4% of entire healthcare capacity)
      • 27.3% Increase in COVID-19 ICU admissions over 14-days (11% of available ICU Beds)
    • Media Questions:
      • "Cattle Call of Considerations" to replace Senator Harris, but no timeline has been yet established
      • "From headwinds to tailwinds" as state transitions from Trump Admin to Biden Admin. State has over 100 lawsuits against the current administration, will evaluate which to continue, which to drop. "Better, Stronger Together" is a California agenda. This is an exciting and elivening time for California. State is moving forward to work with new admin, new CARES act, new stimulus with Congress. 
      • State leaned-in to Vote By Mail. Open to pursuing permanence of Vote By Mail. 
      • Newsom hasn't spoken to Biden, but has been speaking to Harris and will be working closely with key leaders in new administration
      • 3 of 13 of Biden's Coronavirus Transition Advisory Board come from California, UCSF. 
      • Cases on increased transmission: mixing households, private residence cases rising. Choices can reduce transmission. 
      • No counties moving forward on Tuesday. Some moving back to more restrictive tiers. 
      • State will change messaging to be more precise, more prescriptive. 
  • San Diego County Stats
    • State Data:
      • 544 New Cases/60,199 Total Cases
      • 0 Deaths/908 Total Deaths
      • 8.7 cases/100k population (Based on week ending 10/24, Assessed on 11/4. Unadjusted Case Rate Using Linear Adjustment)
      • 3.2% Test Positivity (Based on week ending 10/24, Assessed on 11/4)
      • 5.3% Health Equity Positivity (Based on week ending 10/10, Assessed on 10/27)
    • County Data:
      • San Diego County COVID-19 Update – 11-09-2020 - County News Center
      • 401 New Cases/60,570 Total Cases 
      • 0 New Daily Deaths/908 Total Deaths
      • 4% Daily Test Positivity/% (7-day avg after 7-day lag)/3.3% Test Positivity (14-day average)
      • 7.4 cases/100k population (Based on week ending 10/24, Assessed on 11/4. County is reporting unadjusted case rate per 100,000 excluding prisons. 
      • Case Investigation is 96%3.6
      • 3 New/39 Community Outbreaks (7-day)
  • Universities:
  • COVID-19:
  • Politics:
  • Other Reading/Music News:
  • Good News: 

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