Tuesday, November 10, 2020

CoViD-19 San Diego Rolls Back To Most Restrictive Tier: We Were Warned This Would Happen, Worldwide. Not Enough Of Us Listened.

Izu Looking Majestic As Always At San Diego Zoo Safari Park (Taken 11.10.2020)

We had a lovely afternoon at the San Diego Zoo Safari Park. We took advantage of Nova getting out of school early to arrive around 2, which gave us 3 solid hours at the park, where we covered lots of ground. I didn't get any intimate moments with the rhinos, but the cheetah chirped at Nova for awhile and it was relatively empty so we could see everything we wanted without crowds. Hoping to make it up again very soon, or at least to the Zoo. Bear in mind that the new purple tier, which goes into effect on Saturday, doesn't mean they have to close, but they do have to reduce capacity in their retail stores to 25%. They have a ton of amazing holiday merchandise, so I'd recommend keeping an eye out and taking advantage when there are no lines. 

I watched the San Diego County briefing and it was a little disappointing. The County says they're hoping to step up enforcement and whatnot, but the reality is that we're not doing ourselves any favors. By my math, we're already at 9.5/100k for the week ending 11/7 and that number will likely only rise as cases that test positive this week link back to last week as their 'illness onset' dates. I hope I'm wrong. Supervisor Fletch was asked how we move forward and I think he misspoke when he said we'd have to get red for two weeks, because this is what it says on the Tier framework:

To advance:

A county must have been in the current tier for a minimum of three weeks.

A county must meet criteria for the next less restrictive tier for both measures for the prior two consecutive weeks in order to progress to the next tier.  

To me, that means we're here for three weeks. If in the last two of those three weeks, we get below 7.1/100k, then we can move forward back to red. I read that to mean, at the earliest, we're talking December 8th, and by then we're starting to talk Thanksgiving numbers. If I'm being honest, I don't think we can get back to red until New Year's plus+3 weeks, which would be like January 19th!! I'm not an epidemiologist, just an armchair blogger who's been keeping copies of the reports since March. Again, I hope I'm wrong, but we're not alone. There are shutdowns all across Europe, more US states are finally mandating masks, and other jurisdictions are also putting tighter restrictions on indoor activities. That's the thing about a WORLDWIDE PANDEMIC. We are all connected. The only places squashing the virus are the ones who had strict actual lockdowns and required quarantines. Everyone else is just flailing in the wind. 

Notes on the briefing and some more reading all after the jump.


  • San Diego County Media Briefing
    • We have to try and slow the spread, bring our cases back down, focus back on slowing the spread.
    • There's a 3-day delay for Purple tier. Must go into effect by Friday night/Saturday morning at midnight.
    • San Diego is one of 11 counties in California moving to more restrictive tiers
    • If we wait to act, we could overwhelm our healthcare systems, not look at hospitalizations
    • Spread is out there, growing, stepping up actions and enforcement won't change numbers right away
    • County has asked city mayors, city managers, and law enforcement to step up enforcement of health orders
    • Will be sending 40k masks out to law enforcement to 'offer' people without masks
    • Letters to be sent to hotels, air bnbs to 
    • Complaints of violations should be made to 858.694.2900 or email safereopeningcomplianceteam@sdcounty.ca.gov 
    • Testing Site Opens in Vista; 18 Sites Open on Veterans Day - County News Center
    • County Medical Examiner Releases Mid-Year and Annual Reports - County News Center (11.10.2020)
    • County COVID Watch
    • Starting on Thursday, County will begin reporting Case Rates and Test Positivity Rates by municipality and zip code.
    • Media Questions:
      • Strip Club cease-and-desist were overruled by judge. "We don't believe indoor strip club operations are essential. We also believe they have a high probability for spread...we were disappointed in the initial court ruling" -Nathan Fletcher
      • When activities are outdoor, there is evidence that risk is lowered (not zero) so we hope to see numbers decrease with new restrictions
      • County submitted adjudication request for last week, it was denied. It is available on State website. Didn't submit this week because our numbers were so high. 
      • School waivers may still be applied for K-6 schools only. 
      • We're in the purple tier, will enforce if we have to. Board will be meeting on Tuesday. 
      • County has continued to advocate for some entities to move from red to purple, like they did with salons and tattoo shops. Specifically restaurants (that aren't restaurant/bars, for example) but state hasn't budged on those yet
    • County Data:
      • County Moves to Purple Tier; Restrictions to Start Nov. 14 - County News Center
      • 483 New Cases/61,053 Total Cases 
      • 7 New Daily Deaths/915 Total Deaths
      • 5% Daily Test Positivity/3.8% (7-day avg after 7-day lag)/3.5% Test Positivity (14-day average)
      • 8.9 cases/100k population (Based on week ending 10/31, Assessed on 11/10. County is reporting unadjusted case rate per 100,000 excluding prisons. 
      • Case Investigation is 96%
      • 5 New/39 Community Outbreaks (7-day)
        • 1 restaurant/bar
        • 1 business
        • 1 retail
        • 1 grocery
        • 1 school (TK-12)
      • 39 7-day Community Outbreaks
        • restaurant/bar 8
        • business 13
        • restaurant 4
        • grocery 3
        • hair salon/barber 2
        • tk-12 school 1
        • faith-based agency 2
        • healthcare 1
        • retail 4
        • hotel/resort/spa 1
  • COVID-19:

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