Sunday, November 01, 2020

CoViD-19 San Diego Hospitalizations Increasing | COVID-19 False Equivalences | US Passes 230,000 Deaths

A Bunny on Bayshore Bikeway, Imperial Beach Segment (Taken 11.1.2020)

Today has been a very long day. We headed to my mom's to finish building her shed, and Darren and I only almost killed each other a dozen times before we finished, so I guess you could say we were successful. I was hoping to make it to the Zoo today, but now that clocks rolled back, the San Diego Zoo closes at 5pm and we didn't end up leaving my mom's until sunset. We took the long way home, however, with a short stop at the little nature area off 16th street in IB on the Bayshore Bikeway, then drove the Strand through Coronado back home and made a lovely dinner of baked cod with a butter/wine/garlic sauce, vegetable medley, and rice. We're recycling some of our favorite pandemic recipes. 

It was also a long day because Nova likes to ask questions with no easy answers. In just our ride home, we talked about the differences between being 'patriotic' and being a 'nationalist', we talked about the branches of the government, the House and the Senate and how the Supreme Court works (or doesn't), and other parties other than Democrats and Republicans, and also where I, as a progressive, stand on things relative to the general democratic party. Exhausting, but important. I'm pretty sure I scared the shit out of her when I said that the period between election day and inauguration day are going to be the hardest time we've seen since the pandemic started, regardless of the results. 

I didn't really want to computer at all today, but I had some things to say after the Nova conversation and then catching the news at home. The county didn't send out dailies today or yesterday, so I don't know where the community outbreaks were today, but one of the news channels claims to have deduced outbreak locations with specific data and now the county has pulled that data. If I can find the link I'll post tomorrow.  

Anyway, today's stats after the jump. Off to my speakeasy. 

  • California COVID-19 Stats:
    • 4,529 New Cases/926,534 Total Cases (0.5% increase)
    • 41 New Deaths/17,667 Total Deaths (0.2% increase)
    • 3.2% 14-day test positivity rate
  • San Diego County Stats
    • State Data:
      • 382 New Cases/56,769 Total Cases
      • 3 Deaths/891 Total Deaths
      • 7.4 cases/100k population (Based on week ending 10/17, Assessed on 10/27. Unadjusted Case Rate Using Linear Adjustment)
      • 3.5% Test Positivity (Based on week ending 10/17, Assessed on 10/27)
      • 5.1% Health Equity Positivity (Based on week ending 10/10, Assessed on 10/27)
    • County Data:
      • 352 New Cases/57,102Total Cases 
      • 0 New Daily Deaths/891 Total Deaths
      • 4% Daily Test Positivity/3.4% (7-day avg after 7-day lag)/3.0% Test Positivity (14-day average)
      • 6.5 cases/100k population (Based on week ending 10/17, Assessed on 10/27. County is reporting unadjusted case rate per 100,000 excluding prisons. 
      • Case Investigation is 97%
      • 4 New/29 Community Outbreaks (7-day)
  • Universities:

  • COVID-19:
    • False Equivalence: Today while watching the news, I heard about several South Bay congregations (again) who are suing the state for prolonged and 'unconstitutional' restrictions. One of the interviewed pastors said "if people can sit on a plane for 5 hours, why can't they sit in a church for a service?"
      People have been making these arguments since March. "If Target can be open, why can't gyms?" "If the Zoo is open, why can't Disneyland?"
      Can we please just follow the very most basic advice from scientists and also have some common sense? The WHO, foreign governments, the CDC, Dr. Fauci., State health departments, and County health officers haven't always agreed on everything. The information has been fluid and growing since scientists first starting hearing about the novel coronavirus in late 2019, and when it hit US shores, we didn't know exactly how the virus spread, what reactions human bodies would have to it, and how careful or not we had to be interacting among other humans.
      But now we know more. There's more research. Hospitals have dealt with 226,000+ deaths. The US has had over 9 million cases to see how people, symptomatic or not, react to the virus. We now believe surface fomites are less an issue than droplets; but aerosolization, or how the virus can linger in the air on smaller aerosolized drops, are now our biggest concern. We still don't know what 'viral load' can make people positive or sick, but the masking and handwashing and social distancing all help us reduce viral load even if we come in contact with someone who is positive who is unknowingly out in public. This is also why time within a space matters, too. I'm in and out of Target, at school students remain in the same poorly ventilated spaces for hours on end, or rotating between rooms while breathing in whatever aerosols were left behind.    
      That means cover your holes: your mouth, nose, and eyes. That means you wear protection for me and from me and I wear protection for you and from you.
      To address the ridiculous apples to oranges arguments: If I'm in a plane (which you WILL NOT find me in until at least 2022) I can believe that the HEPA filtered air is bringing in new air every few minutes, that I'm not really engaging with my row mates, that the flight attendants are making sure every passenger remains masked throughout the flight. How is this different than a church? Have you been in a church? The ventilation sucks, people are generally reciting/repeating out loud or singing, and you're more likely to want to interact with your peers, at closer range, for more extended amounts of time, with or without someone constantly reminding you to wear your damn mask. The two situations are not the same. 
      Same with schools compared to anything, same with gyms compared to literally any other ibusiness, and same with anything compared to Disneyland. Anything causing you to have sustained speaking, yelling, celebrating, heavy breathing, singing are more risky than going someplace, handling your business, and getting out. The Zoo is not like Disneyland because while both would have lines for health screenings and entry, the former has virtually no other circumstances where you're in close proximity with others; hardly any if any queues. 
      The only place where I've heard arguments that make any sense is when it comes to restaurants and restaurants/bars. Personally I think California really fucked up here. Allowing mixed households while eating and drinking makes no sense, regardless of capacity. This is definitely one area where I believe the lobbies for these groups won concessions to the overall State's detriment. 
      Sometimes I wish that during the media briefings when some dumb reporter asks why x over y questions that the governor or the health officer or someone would say, "because we tried that and we fucked up and the people can no longer be trusted to self regulate and comply voluntarily." I would've loved if for the 7 months that traffic enforcement wasn't writing parking tickets if they had been writing tickets for mask and health order compliance. Maybe we'd have had our shit together.
      Yet another squandered opportunity. 

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