Monday, November 30, 2020

CoVID-19 Governor Newsom Announces Immediate Business Relief Funds, Warns Of Stressed Hospitals, Future Stay-At-Home | Fauci Warns Of 'Surge Upon A Surge'

Darren and Nova Posing at Tiger Trail, San Diego Zoo Safari Park for Wild Holiday (Taken 11.29.2020)

It's about 2:30 and I'm feeling great. I fell asleep early last night cuddling with my cat and woke up super enthusiastic and ready to take the day by the horns. It was kinda crazy how many articles had come through by 6am, so my morning reading is at the end of this email, but Governor Newsom and Dr. Ghaly had a media briefing and it had so much information that I decided I would post this now and prepare a separate post as I work through my email and separate the #CyberMonday and #GivingTuesday stuff from the news you can use kinda stuff. Nothing against either of those, but lets not be tonedeaf and guilt people for not shopping or supporting small businesses or eating at restaurants or donating to charity at this time. 
I was, however, reading a lot of news before it was even 6am, as I mentioned, and decided that I needed to stock up on goods. I had a plan to hit Ross, Big Lots, Petco, Grocery Outlet and Costco, but by the time I'd finished up at the Ross and Big Lots on Lake Murray, Costco La Mesa was opening and I figured I'd once again try to get paper towels. 
Before I get to that, I have to say that I love Ross and Big Lots, and they're often in close proximity. Sports Arena has them closeby, Chula Vista off Palomar, and Clairemont Mesa, too. And I don't want to ruin it for myself, but the stores on Lake Murray are always clean and not nearly as busy as other stores, and at least right now, are super stocked. Especially Ross, which, if I was doing massive gift-giving this season, I could've taken care of all of it in one trip this morning. And they open at 7:30am. 
After I grabbed odds and ends we needed or had been eyeing for awhile, I went to La Mesa Costco. It's not my favorite of their stores by any stretch, but it too was well stocked and organized. It did start to get crowded as I made my way through the store, so I was glad to have a specific list and know how to navigate to get it all and get out as quickly as possible. Since I grabbed a rotisserie chicken, I decided to save the pet store and Grocery Outlet for another time. I was home by 11 and feeling quite accomplished. Loads of information about the Governor's small business relief measures and current COVID-19 outlook are below.

  • California Governor Newsom Media Briefing:
    • TL;dr: California could reinstate a stay at home order if necessary (and it looks like it will be necessary)
    • TL;dr Adding Small Business Relief programs to get businesses through to the next legislative session in January
    • Today's briefing was moved by 1/2 hour so I grazed comments on YouTube. "Open Disneyland," "Open schools", and "Open Everything" vs  
    • We anticipate another large increase in cases within the next 1-2 weeks from Thanksgiving gatherings
    • Case Rate Comparison. CA Ranks 39tj in 7/day avg per 100k residents 
      • 1. North Dakota 112.3/100k
      • 2. Wyoming 111.7/100k
      • 3. South Dakota 111.5/100k
      • 4. Minnesota 104.6/100k 
      • 39. Calfornia 34.5/100k
    • 12% of new cases will likely be hospitalized in 2 weeks
    • Current projections show hospitalizations could increase 2-3x current amount in just one month
    • Statewide 59% of Hospital Beds Currently In Use/Projected 78% on 12/24
    • Southern CA 66% current total bed/79% porjections 
    • 10-30% Hospitalizations require ICU/respiratory support
    • 23% in ICU are COVID-19 positive
    • Southern CA 74% - Current % ICU Beds Occupied/107% projected ICU occupied by 12/24
    • Slowing the Surge: If these trends continue, CA could take drastic action including a potential stay at home order for regions with concerning hospitalizations and ICU capacity
    • 51/58 counties are purple tier. 6 Red. 1 Orange. 0 Yellow.
    • California Preperation:
      • Mutual aid is more limited because all states (and many countries) are currently impacted
      • CA has larger PPE stockpile than the Federal stockpile
      • Active & Registered health staff ready to be deployed through Health Corps
      • First-in-the-nation state testing lab
      • More ventilators on hand than any other state
      • 11 surge facilities (1,862 Beds) can be converted in 24-96 hours
    • Immediate Relief Funds for Businesses
      • Billions in sales tax deferrals
        • Automatic 3-month extension for taxpayers with less than $1M in sales tax
        • Expand interest-free payment agreements to larger companies with up to $5M in sales
        • Expand to industries heavily impacted by operations restrictions including bars and restaurants, hair salons, and more. 
      • Emergency Relief Package:
        • CA wil provide up to $500 million in COVID relief funds
        • Grants up to $25k for small businesses/non-profits/cultural institutions in need
        • The program will act as a bridge until we can take further actions in next legislative session in January
      • CA Rebuilding Fund:
        • Goal of providing $125M of relief with public-prives investment for small businesses
        • Increasing state funding to $37.5M Total
        • Applications opened last weekend 
      • $100 Million Main Street Hiring Tax Credit
        • $1,000 per qualified employee
        • Up to $100k for each business employer
        • Applications go live tomorrow
      • Tax Relief:
        • $100M to waive franchise tax for new businesses
        • Exclude PPP loans from state taxes 
      • Existing Support for Small Biz:
        • $100 million for Small Business Support
          • $50 million COVID disaster relief loan guarantees
          • $50 million Small Business Programs
            • 217 Loans Approved
            • Leveraging total of $109 million 
        • Great Plates provided 9,822 jobs in food industry
        • Exec Orders enabling commercial eviction freezes
        • PP distributed to support small businesses
        • $20M invested in expanding services with 86 business centers to help navigate new guidance, accesss capital, adapt to new marketplace
        • PPP:
          • 623,360 businesses
          • $68.6 Billion
          • Total of $105.5 billion in Federal Relief
      • Additional Relief for businesses to Come:
        • Working with legislatureon broader relief package including
          • Creating incentives to retain and expand jobs
          • Waiving or modifying fees for heavily impacted industries including bars and restaurant, hair salons, personal services, & more
          • Accelerating additional infrastructure funding
        • CA cannot do this alone. 248 days since CARES act passed. The federal government needs to do its job and provide relief. 
      • California Vaccine Update:
        • Anticipate 327k doses in mid-December, 2nd doses in 3 weeks
        • Drafting Guidelines Workgroup making recommendations this week for Phase 1A distribution
        • Recommendations will be reviewed by Community Advisory Vaccine Committee
    • Dr. Ghaly:
      • Been in constant conversation with health officers and health care delivery systems, smaller hospitals 
      • Doing all we can to address surge
      • Adding Beds/Staff as best as possible
      • High case rates in past 10 days haven't even begun to impact hospitals/ERs/ICUs
    • Media Questions: 
      • Regional hospital capacity will be stressed. Specifically concerned about ICUs. Need specialized staff, equipment. ICU stress is the trigger for stay-at-home expansion. State still hopes to bend the curve, change the trajectory, change the projections. 
      • Hospitals are already voluntarily suspending elective surgeries as they did earlier in the pandemic. 
      • Any subsequent movement and/or restrictions are being assessed in real time. 
      • CA is the equivalent of 21 states. Context in size and scale is different. We should expect cases to be high, but positivity is what we should be looking at. Ours is growing and is disconcerting, but at 6.2% is not the highest we've had. 
      • Cases are rising because it is easy to drop our guard, COVID fatigue, COVID resentment, outright refusal to comply with basic non-medical interventions like social distancing and masking, lots of interstate travel and mixing.
      • Scientific Safety Review Committee is reviewing trials of vaccines and data, not doing their own vaccine trials. 
      • Quarantining for 14 days is recommending after traveling, testing positive, being in contact with known COVID positive. There is no forced compliance but people should do the right thing. 
      • Hospital waiver programs are still in effect, there are programs for care for caregivers, testing, relief, emergency funds, hotel rooms, debit cards, paid sick leave. Frontline workers are still under duress and it is recognized and state is still addressing waivers, staffing ratios, additional guidance will be issued by state. 
      • State is looking at data to guide what should be open, to be more surgical and prescriptive when making sectoral closure decisions as well as regional needs. 
      • The truth is that with this community spread, the minute you walk indoors, chances of coming in contact with someone positive is very high. General mixing is also making a big impact in spread. Indoor vs outdoor. 
      • Additional information and recommendations will be issued this week, with more briefings than normal.  
    • COVID-19 Stats
      • 14,034 New Cases/1,212,968 Total Cases (1.2% increase)/14,657 7-Day Avg
      • Previous Peak 7-day Avg 9,881
      • 20 New Deaths/19,141 Total Deaths (% increase)/59 deaths 7-day average
      • 6.2% 14-day test positivity rate/7-day positivity rate
      • 89% increase hospitalizations over 14-days 
      • 67% increase in ICU over-14-days
      • 217,670 Tests/223,947 7-day average daily tests/24,025,071 Total Tests 
  • World COVID-19 Stats (JHU 11/30 2:27pm):
    • 63,098,003 Known Cases 
    • 1,465,111 Known Deaths
  • US COVID-19 Stats (JHU 11/30 2:27pm):
    • 13,511,194 New Cases
    • 267,792 Known Deaths
  • San Diego County Stats
    • State Data:
      • 1,066 New Cases/81,086 Total Cases
      • 1 Deaths/997 Total Deaths
      • 26.5 cases/100k population (Based on week ending 11/24, Assessed on 11/28. Unadjusted Case Rate)
      • 4.7% Test Positivity (Based on week ending 11/24, Assessed on 11/28.)
      • N/A Health Equity Positivity (Based on week ending 11/24)
    • County Data (Doesn't release until after 5pm):
      • 15.6 cases/100k population (Based on week ending 11/24, Assessed on 11/28. Unadjusted case rate per 100,000 excluding prisons.) 
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