Monday, November 30, 2020

CoViD-19: NY Governor Cuomo Declares "The War On COVID" | San Diego Officials Urge Holiday Gathering Attendees To Get Tested | NFL Is A Joke That Isn't Funny | Cyber Monday Must Buy: A Humidifier

 

Mask Up or Stay Home at Wild Holidays at San Diego Zoo Safari Park (Taken 11.29.2020)

Okay, I told you I would knock out a second post tonight, so I updated some numbers and ended up watching New York Governor Cuomo's media briefing just because it's interesting to see how other states are handling the current surge. His tone is much more direct than Governor Newsom even though their strategies are aligning and their warnings equally as dire. In the meantime, Nova is at derby today and I'm wondering if we're being risky, even though they are masked the entire time they're on the property and they're outdoor and distanced. Like, is skating through someone's outdoor aerosols risky? Do we assume everyone is following protocols in their private lives even when I've seen the facility on TV with skaters wearing masks below their noses? Is my shopping run to Ross, Big Lots, and Costco more risky than her derby? I don't know the answers, I only hope we're doing as best we can, keeping things balanced, and minimizing risk where possible. And we take our own temperatures about half a dozen times a day because it's kinda fun with the sensor gun. 
If you're interested in NY's strategy, notes are below, as well as some additional reading. Particularly funny is the piece on the NFL. Also, not to give anything away, but the Casbah has a big exciting announcement tomorrow, so check your email for the newsletter, or check social media for their posts. 
  • Global COVID-19 Stats (JHU 11/30 7:27pm):
    • 63,192,543 Known Cases
    • 1,467,174 Known Deaths
  • US COVID-19 Stats (COVID Tracking Project):
    • 147,074 New Cases/13,337,969 Known Cases (9.1% 7-day increase)
    • 259,075 Known Deaths
    • 96,039 Current Hospitalizations
    • 18,545 Current ICU
    • 6,520 Currently on Ventilators
  • California COVID-19 Stats:
    • 14,034 New Cases/1,212,968 Total Cases (1.2% increase)
    • 20 New Deaths/19,141 Total Deaths (% increase)
    • 6.2% 14-day test positivity rate
  • San Diego County Stats
    • People at Holiday Gatherings Urged to Get Tested for COVID-19 - County News Center
    • 959 New Cases/82,043 Total Cases 
    • 0 New Daily Deaths/997 Total Deaths
    • 6% Daily Test Positivity/6.6% (7-day avg after 7-day lag)/6.1% Test Positivity (14-day average)
    • 15.6 cases/100k population (Based on week ending 11/24, Assessed on 11/28. Unadjusted case rate per 100,000 excluding prisons.) 
    • Case Investigation is 67% (under 70% goal)
    • Increasing Hospitalizations 16.4% (over 10% trigger)
    • 7 New on 11/29, 9 New on 11/28, 16 New on 11/27, 10 New on 11/26, 12 New on 11/25/79 Community Outbreaks (7-day)
      • Business 24
      • Restaurant/bar 12
      • Retail 11
      • Restaurant 7
      • Grocery 5
      • Faith-based agency 4
      • Government 4
      • Daycare/preschool 3
      • Healthcare 2
      • Construction 1
      • Emergency Services 1
      • Food/Bev Processing 1
      • Higher Ed 1
      • tk-12 school 1
      • Warehouse/Distribution 1
      • Other 1
  • COVID-19:
    • New York Governor Cuomo Press Briefing:
      • Calling new phase "The War On COVID." 
        • Must use war mindset, preparation, mobilization 
        • Just as water retains no constant shape, so in warfare there are no constant conditions. He who can modify his tactics in relation to his opponent (can) thereby succeed in winning." - SunTzu The Art of War
        • When the facts change, when the attack changes, change your defense or offense. 
      • What has changed?
        • Colder weather
        • Increased travel
        • Changes in behavior
        • Changes in how businesses operate
        • Increased mobility >> social activity >> viral infection rate.
        • Had a fall surge, now having a holiday surge. Surge on top of a surge.
        • Will last for all of holiday season. 37 days from 11/26-1/2
        • This is the season of viral transmission
      • Holiday Season: COVID is the grinch. 
        • Will see continued increases until mid-January
        • Hospital capacity is a major concern
        • Vaccine critical mass won't happen until late spring/summer 
        • All a function of social action and human behavior
      • Restrictions have helped:
        • Bar & Restaurant protocols have reduced levels of spread
        • Personal services protocols have reduced levels of spread
        • Gym protocols have somewhat reduced levels of spread
        • Mask wearing has been highly effective
        • School protocols have been highly effective
      • Family Gatherings and smaller social gatherings have exploded virus spread
      • When COVID rates go up, hospitalizations and ICUs increase
      • Hospitalizations have become top concern:
        • Beds
        • ICU
        • Staffing
      • 5 Strategies
        • Focus on the number of hospitalizations and hospital capacity
          • Zone designations will now consider Hospitalization Rate, Death Rate, Case Rate, Available hospital beds, Available ICU beds, Available staff, effective patient load management, PPE.
          • Reviewing/Awaiting "post-Thanksgiving effect" (7-10 day lag)
          • Keeping in communication with hospital administrators 
          • Adding and "emergency stop" on top of tier systems
          • Initiating Emergency Hospital Procedures: 
            • identifying staff shortages
            • stopping elective surgeries
            • hospital network load balancing mandated
            • prepare emergency field hospitals plan
            • hospitals plan to add 50% bed capacity
            • prepare to implement statewide "surge and flex"
            • prepare to staff emergency field hospitals
            • confirm PPE stockpile of 90 days
        • Testing
          • Increase gross amount of testing
          • Balance distribution
            • Healthcare
            • Nursing homes
            • Schools
            • Essential workers
            • Business professionals
            • Personal services testing
            • General population, students returning, traveling, etc.
        • Keep schools open safely
          • Weekly testing for orange and red zones
          • Pool testing allowed
          • Districts can exceed testing so long as other testing is balanced
          • Districts can close at lower threshold than state
          • There are protocols that trigger mandatory closures
        • Small gathering spread is now top spreader- 65% of spread
          • Behavioral shift 
          • Less than 10 people per gathering/household
          • Government ability to monitor is limited
          • Public education campaign on safety concerns
          • Not a political issue: health officials under Trump and Biden agree
          • Your risk puts other people at risk 
        • Vaccination
          • The weapon that will end the war
          • Fairness, equity, safety
          • Inclusive process for underserved people of color and poor communities
          • Critical mass is months away
    • History reminds us that vaccines alone don’t end pandemics. Mask-wearing and social distancing will be essential, even after a vaccine is deployed - The Washington Post (11.30.2020)
    • The coronavirus has turned the NFL into a joke, and nobody should be laughing - The Washington Post (11.30.2020)
    • Divisions Emerge Among U.S. Officials Over When First Covid-19 Vaccine Doses Will Be Available — And for Whom - STAT News (11.30.2020)
    • Federal System for Tracking Hospital Beds and COVID-19 Patients Provides Questionable Data - Science (11.29.2020)
    • Covid Winter Is Coming. Could Humidifiers Help? As the air gets drier, and people stay indoors with the heater on, humidity will likely play a role in how easily the respiratory virus spreads. - Wired (11.12.2020)

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