Friday, March 12, 2021

CoViD-19: San Diego Prepares To Move To Red Tier | Contemplating School Reopening | SDIVA Save Our Stages | Your Truck Is A Death Machine |


It's like Lauren Ruth Ward Knew What Was To Come In 2020 (Taken at Casbah 3.13.2020) 

So much going on today and Darren is in the speakeasy so I'm going to type as fast as my fat little fingers will allow. I've been watching The One on Netflix and I'm totally hooked so I was up till sunrise before I finally drifted off to sleep. 

By the afternoon, Nova's school was having a Zoom session about reopening. It's a little crazy, I don't know how working parents are expected to drop off and pick up kids in the middle of the day, but for us it seems easy enough. They'll have cohorts of 16 students who stay in the same classroom for partial days, like 8ish to noonish, and the teachers will rotate based on the cohorts. They will have all windows and doors open AND the A/C on with something called MERV 13 filters. I would like to see them implement hourly room evacuations to clear the air and CO2 monitors in the classrooms, but I'm hoping that in a month numbers will be down so much and so many more people vaccinated that it may no longer be essential. We've already told Nova that if she chooses in-person learning, we'll make a habit of weekly or bi-weekly testing so long as tests remain free and available in the community. It really is so complicated though, with every family under such very different circumstances...multiple kids at different schools, both parents working full-time in non-flexible positions, people who have only paid attention to the politics and none of the science. I'm glad Nova is at a relatively small charter and the decision isn't too hard for us. 

Meanwhile, the County is reporting that we will likely move to the red tier by Wednesday. It's on a funny technicality that as vaccines increase in underserved areas, the rest of the community can ease things up. So we're technically purple right now with 8.8 cases per 100k, but once the state gives 2 million doses in the 'lowest quartile' of the healthy places index, the red tier can be achieved by 10 cases/100k of population instead of 7, which will then retroactively make this week red, I guess? It will change again when the state hits 4 million doses of the lowest quartile, but only affects the looser tiers at that point. It seems confusing or "moving the goalposts" but it's actually pretty straightforward: we're not gonna crush the virus, but with enough of us vaccinated or with antibodies from having had COVID, the risks of overburdening our health care systems again is relatively low. So, yeah, that's my explainer and I'm sticking to it. I found some interesting non-COVID articles today, plus a couple sick burns during the Psaki press conference. I also included LA's guidance for red tier, which is slightly stricter than the state, but you can get a sense of what will change. It really bothers me that LA has a lower case rate than San Diego, but that's a whine for another time. Stay safe out there and rock the shot when you can. 

  • COVID-19:
    • County to Move to Red Tier March 17 - San Diego County News Center (3.12.21)
    • WHO Director-General's statement as well as other materials from the COVID-19 media briefing on 12 March
      • WHO’s Global Advisory Committee on Vaccine Safety systematically reviews safety signals, and is carefully assessing the current reports on the AstraZeneca vaccine. 
      • More than 335 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines have been administered globally so far, and no deaths have been found to have been caused by COVID-19 vaccines. But at least 2.6 million people have been killed by the virus.  
      • Today, WHO gave emergency use listing to Johnson & Johnson’s COVID-19 vaccine, making it the fourth vaccine to receive WHO’s approval. Emergency use listing is the green light for a vaccine to be procured and rolled out by COVAX. The COVAX Facility has booked 500 million doses of the J&J vaccine, and we look forward to receiving them as soon as possible.  
  • Other Reading:
  • White House:
  • Global COVID-19 Stats (JHU 3.12.21 9:25pm):
    • 119,058,805 Known Cases
    • 2,639,413 Known Deaths
  • US COVID-19 Stats 
    • CDC COVID-19 Vaccination Data Tracker
    • JHU
      • 29,345,660 Cases
      • 532,555 Deaths
    • CDC Data Tracker:
      • 56,586 New Cases Reported/29,0113,651 Total Cases Reported 
      • 54,639 Current 7-Day Average/61,538 Prior 7-Day Average
      • -11.2% Change in 7-Day Average since Prior Week
      • 1,513 New Deaths Reported/529,301 Total Deaths Reported
      • 1,465 Deaths 7-day average (-19.3% from prior week)
      • Variants:
        • B.1.1.7. - 3,701
        • B.1.351 - 108
        • P.1 - 17
      • Vaccines: Delivered 133,337,525/Administered 101,128,005
        • 50,960,400 Pfizer Administered/63,202,425 Delivered
        • 49,169,578 Moderna Administered/66,419,000 Delivered
        • 873,726 J&J Administered/3,716,100 Delivered
  • California COVID-19 Stats:
    • State of California Safe Schools For All Hub
    • Vaccination progress dashboard
    • Aggregate California ICU Bed Availability: 26.7%
    • R-effective: 0.71
    • 15,384,710 Doses Delivered/11,169,839 Doses Administered
    • 3,471 New Cases/3,520,333 Total Cases (6.8 cases/100k)
    • 288 New Deaths/54,878 Total Deaths (0.1 new deaths/100k)
    • 2.3% 14-day test positivity rate
    • 3,812 COVID-19 Hospitalizations (146 patients, -3.8% from prior day)
    • 1,030 COVID-19 ICU hospitalized in CA (-1 patients, -0.1% from prior day)
    • 2,089 ICU beds available (-45 from prior day)
  • San Diego County 
    • Free Testing Sites and Schedule in San Diego
    • VaccinationSuperstationSD
    • Vaccination Dashboard
    • San Diego County Of Education School Reopening Dashboard
    • State Data:
      • Southern California ICU Bed Availability: 27.6%
      • R-effective: 0.73
      • 430 New Cases/264,524 Total Cases
      • 9 Deaths/3,422 Total Deaths
      • 8.9 cases/100k population (Assessed on 3/9. Unadjusted Case Rate)
      • 3.3% Test Positivity (Assessed on 3/9)
      • 4.5% Health Equity Positivity (Assessed on 3/9)
      • 316 COVID-19 hospitalized patients (-33 patients, -9.5% from prior day)
      • 94 COVID-19 ICU hospitalized patients (-9 patients, -8.7% from prior day)
      • 249 ICU beds available (-22 from prior day)
    • County Data:
      • San Diego County Update - County News Center 
      • 362 New Cases/264,889 Total Cases 
      • 12 New Daily Deaths/3,434 Total Deaths
      • 1,270,145 Doses Received/1,185,577 Doses Administered
      • 3% Daily Test Positivity/2.9% (7-day avg after 7-day lag)/2.9% Test Positivity (14-day average)
      • 8.8 cases/100k population (Assessed on 3/9. Adjusted case rate per 100,000 excluding prisons.) 
      • 90% Case Investigation 
      • -9.3% Day Over Day COVID-19 Hospitalizations (272 patients. -70% over 30 days)
      • 37% ICU Capacity (86 patients. -71% over 30 days)
      • 52 Staffed ICU Beds Available
      • 3 New/12 Community Outbreaks (7-day)
    • Universities:
    • Los Angeles is now in the red tier. Here's what that means for the state's largest county. The modifications to the Health Officer Order include the following:
      1. Museum, Zoos and Aquariums can open indoors at 25% capacity.
      2. Gyms, Fitness Centers, Yoga and Dance Studios can open indoors at 10% capacity with masking requirement for all indoor activities.
      3. Movie Theatres can open indoors at 25% capacity with reserved seating only where each group is seated with at least 6 feet of distance in all directions between any other groups.
      4. Retail and Personal Care Services can increase capacity to 50% with masking required at all times and for all services.
      5. Restaurants can open indoors at 25% max capacity under the following conditions:  8 feet distancing between tables; one household per table with a limit of 6 people; the HVAC system is in good working order and has been evaluated, and to the maximum extent possible ventilation has been increased. Public Health strongly recommends that all restaurant employees interacting with customers indoors are provided with additional masking protection (above the currently required face shield over face masks); this can be fit tested N95 masks, KN95 masks, or double masks and a face shield.  In addition, Public Health strongly recommends that all employees working indoors are informed about and offered opportunities to be vaccinated. Outdoor dining can accommodate up to six people per table from 3 different households.
      6. Indoor Shopping Malls can increase capacity to 50% with common areas remaining closed; food courts can open at 25% capacity adhering to the restaurant guidance for indoor dining.
      7. Institutes of Higher Education can re-open all permitted activities with required safety modifications except for residential housing which remains under current restrictions for the Spring semester.
      8. Schools are permitted to re-open for in-person instruction for students in grades 7-12 adhering to all state and county directives.
      9. Private gatherings can occur indoors with up to 3 separate households, with masking and distancing required at all times.  People who are fully vaccinated can gather in small numbers indoors with other people who are fully vaccinated without required masking and distancing. 
    • Businesses must implement all the requirements in the sector specific Public Health protocols. It is critical that directives and infection protocols are followed to minimize COVID-19 spread as much as possible. The comprehensive protocols for all sectors that reopen will be posted online later today.

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